NZ-Pacific tensions rise as China strengthens regional ties – The Front Page

Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown (left) and Foreign Affairs Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters. Photo / RNZ Pacific

Could New Zealand’s relationships with its Pacific neighbours be in jeopardy – and is China ready to take full advantage?

Tensions have emerged in recent weeks between New Zealand and several Pacific Island nations.

Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown has been accused of “not properly consulting” New Zealand on the country’s upcoming China deal – which is expected to be penned in Beijing this week.

New Zealand’s aid for Kiribati is under review after an apparent snubbing of Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters.

It’s aid that accounts for much of the foreign aid that makes up about 18% of the small nation’s national income. New Zealand’s development co-operation with Kiribati totalled $102 million in the period 2021-24.

Meanwhile, Samoa is seeking support from China as well, as communities continue to be affected by the sinking of the New Zealand Navy vessel HMNZS Manawanui off its coast.

While the New Zealand Defence Force has been hard at work recovering just over 340,000 litres of liquid from the ship, the Chinese embassy in Apia met with villagers directly affected the other week.

Locals whose livelihoods were impacted by the sinking reached out to the Chinese embassy themselves and RNZ reports they’ve received a $30,000 donation from China as a result.

University of Auckland retired international relations professor, and Honorary Captain in the Royal New Zealand Navy, Stephen Hoadley told The Front Page that while China is the world’s largest country by population, the Pacific islands are some of the smallest.

“China has 10,000 diplomats, the Pacific Islands may have 10 or 20 to negotiate the details of these various aid projects.

“China has had an economic and diplomatic relationship with the Pacific Islands for many years. The military aspect is the new element. China’s Navy is the largest in the world and China is exploring blue water deployments.

“They have their Belt and Road Initiative right throughout Southeast Asia, even extending to Africa. And some countries in Europe, which is concerning to the United States because some of these Belt and Road projects, particularly port facilities, could be easily converted into Navy support facilities.

“This hasn’t happened yet in the Pacific, but there is concern,” Hoadley said.

For example, Hoadley pointed to the deal between the Solomon Islands and China in 2023. The secret deal turned out to include “law enforcement and security matters” and its details weren’t immediately made public.

“Australian journalists have been able to find texts of the agreement, and it does have clauses in it whereby the Government can call upon China police and military to support the Government, no matter whether it’s democratic or not, whether it’s legitimate or not,” He said.

At the moment, Hoadley said, we have to “ruefully conclude that the Chinese are moving closer, and deeper, into the Pacific”, and while we can try and match their offers, if governments like the Cook Islands get big deals from China, there’s not a great deal New Zealand can do about it.

That could pose difficult questions for the future of the relationship between New Zealand and the Cook Islands.

“I guess you might say, why should we continue with the association with the Cook Islands?,” Hoadley said. “Should New Zealand say let’s discontinue and let the Cook Islands be independent? Cook Islanders could not come to New Zealand and be citizens. They would have to have their own passports and visas.

“What would happen to the 20,000 or 30,000 Cook Islanders who live in Auckland and surrounding areas? Would they suddenly become aliens, and would we have to do a ‘Donald Trump’ and consider deportation? I certainly hope not.

“If that relationship breaks down, is there a future for the Cook Islands as a freely associated state with New Zealand, or are we looking at a divorce?” Hoadley said.

Brown has said he’s assured New Zealand “over and over” that there would be no impact on the countries' relationship and “no surprises”, especially on security aspects.

Winston Peters has ordered a review of New Zealand’s overseas aid programme. More than 60% of New Zealand’s overseas aid goes to the Pacific.

In Budget 2024 there was a $30m reduction to the Government’s international co-operation programme. And there’s uncertainty over the $1.3 billion in climate aid, which is set to expire this year.

Hoadley said that with the US pulling back from commitments and aid, China has the freedom to “make very attractive offers to Pacific Island leaders” and to gain even greater influence, and few countries can step into that void.

“We’re pleased that Britain and France are upping their military presence in the Pacific region again to balance China, but it’s not enough. And the Chinese have a multi-pronged policy, diplomatic, economic, and military, and clandestine as well, that we find it’s very hard to stand against,” Hoadley said.

Listen to the full episode to hear more about our dampening relationship with the Pacific, and what more Chinese involvement could mean for NZ.

The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5am. The podcast is presented by Chelsea Daniels, an Auckland-based journalist with a background in world news and crime/justice reporting who joined NZME in 2016.

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