NZ links that keep islands poor

Pacific countries that have easy access to New Zealand stand out in the region as having particularly "shaky and vulnerable" populations, says Waikato University demographer Professor Ian Pool.

Professor Pool said an examination of age pyramids provided by the Secretariat of the Pacific Community in Noumea showed Niue, Tokelau and the Cook Islands had very unstable populations.

The people of all three countries have free access to New Zealand because of historical connections.

Niue and the Cook Islands self-govern in free association with New Zealand and Tokelau is a non-self-governing territory of New Zealand.

Professor Pool said in Niue's case, the country of only about 1200 people had just 14.9 per cent in the labour force entrant age, between 15 and 24 years.

"That is very small and it is critical for development."

Worldwide the percentage of populations in that category would be about 20 per cent, he said.

Professor Pool said Niue's profile was similar to Tokelau (14.8 per cent) and the Cook Islands (15.6 per cent) and the three were probably similarly affected by out-migration to New Zealand.

He said Niue had a low number of children aged under 15, about one third of the tiny population, similar to the Cook Islands and Tokelau.

Of concern was that both Niue and the Cook Islands had negative growth rates, meaning they were losing people, compared with all other Pacific countries which had positive growth rates.

Tokelau showed little change in population size since 2001.

Professor Pool said although the data showed serious demographic instability in the countries, it was impossible to indicate a time frame by when a population could be at real risk of collapse. He gave as an example Pitcairn Island which had survived for decades with a tiny population, currently just under 50.

Most of Polynesia had "very, very shaky' population viability but those countries where the young people could more easily leave were far more vulnerable, he said.

"It is not just the loss of them, but if they have children elsewhere you are not going to get the replenishment through reproduction."

In a paper the secretariat said the relatively small populations found in Polynesian countries and their associations with metropolitan countries made them very sensitive to international migration.

The combined population of the seven smallest Pacific Island countries and territories (51,800) was about equal to the combined population of Vanuatu's two towns.

The secretariat reported that according to its most recent population estimates, the population of the Pacific Islands (not including Australia or New Zealand) reached 8.6 million in 2004, an increase of 1.9 million over the past decade.

The five largest island countries and territories, comprising Melanesia, accounted for 86 per cent of the regional population, followed by Polynesian countries and territories (7.4 per cent) and Micronesian (6.2 per cent).

Two out of every three Pacific Islanders lived in Papua New Guinea, and Fiji's population of 836,000 was 25 per cent larger than all 10 Polynesian countries and territories combined.

Pacific numbers

* Niue 1200

* Cook Islands 13,000

* Tokelau 1500

* Samoa 180,900

* Tonga 102,800

* Fiji 836,000