NZ First a worry for National

Helen Clark visits the Sikh Gurdwara Sahib complex in Takanini, South Auckland. Picture / Martin Sykes

National is just ahead of Labour as the parties turn for home in a heated contest to election day on Saturday, according to the latest poll.

But National was shaken last night by emerging confusion over New Zealand First's post-election position.

It now appears there may be no advantage from New Zealand First to the largest single party - which National had been banking on as its most likely way of gaining power. The advantage would go to the largest bloc of parties.

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters last night refused to answer questions about it.

But the Herald understands there are quite divergent views within the party about what Mr Peters' keynote speech in Rotorua last Wednesday meant.

There is no confusion about one point - that New Zealand First will not go into formal coalition with either National or Labour.

But on the issue of confidence and money supply there is confusion.

It was widely reported last week that Mr Peters intended that if New Zealand First was in a position of influence, it would let the single biggest party try to form a government, without opposing it.

And it would possibly give it support on confidence and supply through negotiation over five priority policies, chief among them a Golden Age card for the elderly.

On the hypothetical basis of last night's One News-Colmar Brunton poll, the advantaged party would be National, because it is ahead of Labour 41 per cent to 39.

It could form a minority National-United Future government of 54 seats, with a guarantee of New Zealand's First seven votes on confidence and money supply votes only. All other votes would be decided case by case.

But the Herald understands that others in the party have interpreted the position differently and believe the party that can attract the highest number of seats altogether, including from other parties, would be able to form a government without New Zealand First's voting against it.

On the basis of last night's poll, that would be Labour.

Despite Labour being smaller than National, it would be able to form a minority government of 58 seats with the Progressives and the Greens (in the 120-seat house).

National leader Don Brash was last night surprised at the new variation in interpretation.

"My interpretation was that Mr Peters would support the largest party on confidence and supply," Dr Brash said through a spokesman. "If he is not going to do this, New Zealanders who want tax relief and more incentives for hard work need to take this into account in their voting."

The poll has National on 41 (down 5); Labour on 39 (up 1); the Greens steady on 6; New Zealand First 6 (up 1); Act 3 (up 2); United Future 2 (up 1); Maori Party 1 (down 1), and Destiny New Zealand steady on 1.

The poll of 1000 voters was taken between Monday and Thursday last week - during which time Dr Brash said he knew the Exclusive Brethren were planning a pamphlet campaign against the Government.

Meanwhile Dr Brash is this week expected to return to his two key themes of tax-cuts and Treaty of Waitangi issues to give him a late burst of support at the finish line.

Frustrated that the fiasco over the pamphlets has overshadowed his key messages, he told a group at Botany Downs in Manukau City yesterday that in the past few weeks "this campaign has sometimes seemed more like a circus than a campaign. There has been distraction after distraction, sideshow after sideshow delivered by our political opponents."

Prime Minister Helen Clark could not be contacted about confusion over New Zealand First's position. She will be chairing a Cabinet meeting this morning where the sale of the Air Force Skyhawks is expected to be finalised.