As the results come in, nzherald.co.nz will be talking to the experts about what each win means and how it could change the make-up of the next parliament.
KEY POINTS:
12.55am: Little to hold up formation of a coalition
National leader John Key has announced he has already been in touch with United Future leader Peter Dunne and ACT leader Rodney Hide about forming a coalition.
Mr Key also said he had phoned Maori Party co-leader Tariana
Turia.
Political scientist Bryce Edwards said John Key's coalition talks will be nothing like 1996.
In 1996, New Zealand First leader Winston Peters took eight weeks to go back and forwards between National and Labour before a coalition agreement was finally signed.
"John Key has done very well to actually sort out his coalition friends prior to the election," Dr Edwards said.
He said ACT will want an extra cabinet seat for Roger Douglas but there is little that could hold up the signing of a coalition agreement.
"What will impact mostly on how long it takes is the question of the Maori Party involvement, that's where things might be a bit more complicated," Dr Edwards said.
He said Mr Key has been enthusiastic about Maori Party involvement but the Maori Party don't move fast because they consult with their supporters.
"We should know about that in the next few days," Dr Edwards said.
He said Mr Key is a strategist and is already looking ahead to the next election.
"Although it looks like he's got 65 seats in the coming Parliament, that's only two or three more than the majority," Dr Edwards said.
"He'll be aware that for the next election, with the Maori Party, he'll need to be on good terms."
12.42am: Helen Clark announcement catches spectators off-guard
Helen Clark's announcement that she will be stepping down as Labour Party leader "caught everyone off-guard", political scientist Bryce Edwards said.
"Given that she is signalling she is standing down straight away, it has to favour Phil Goff to be the next leader. He is definitely the front runner and it gives little time for others to manoeuvre ahead of him," the University of Otago lecturer said.
He said Mr Goff would be a more "centrist leader" than Helen Clark and that could be an effective way for the Labour Party to take on a new National-led coalition.
The prediction market website iPredict is posting stock increases in Phil Goff and David Cunliffe of 54 and 45 cents respectively.
"That gives you some indication about how people who follow these things closely feel," Dr Edwards said.
He said Labour has not had a collapse in vote but some old faces, including Judith Tizard, are gone.
11.55pm: New Labour leadership may be a surprising appointment
The announcement itself is no surprise but the timing is, said political scientist Jennifer Lees-Marshment.
Helen Clark's resignation as leader of the Labour Party had to come sooner rather than later, otherwise she risked being a sitting duck Prime Minister, the University of Auckland lecturer said.
"You wouldn't want to go from being Prime Minister to Leader of the Opposition, it means you are going to be less effective. It also means all the attention and focus is going to go on who is going to succeed her, rather than why did she lose, which is very clever," Dr Lees-Marshment said.
She said Phil Goff is a possibility for the leadership, as is number two on the party list Michael Cullen but there could also be a new-comer.
She said British Labour Party leader Tony Blair was largely an unknown, as was National leader John Key.
"Watch this space," Dr Lees-Marshment said.
11.45pm: Labour and Greens will be 'lonely in Parliament'
Helen Clark will retire as leader of the Labour Party but will hang on long enough for her chosen heir to "come through", political scientist Bryce Edwards said.
The University of Otago lecturer said Helen Clark's favourite replacement leader would be the "left leaning" David Cunliffe, while others may prefer Phil Goff.
"They [Mr Goff and Helen Clark] have never had a warm relationship and ideologically they've been apart, especially on economic issues," Dr Edwards said.
He said Helen Clark is now a lame duck leader and the credible leader of the Opposition is Jeanette Fitzsimons.
"Labour and the Greens will be lonely in Parliament, I'd say now. That left bloc has been reduced," Dr Edwards said.
11.15pm: Coalition building unlikely to be a chore
With 99 per cent of the votes counted, only "a bit of nibbling at the edges" could take place with special votes counted, political science lecturer Alan Simpson said.
The University of Waikato lecturer said some of the large South Auckland seats coming in may have changed things, but in the end they had little or no effect.
"Labour has been stuck on 33 per cent for a long time now. I don't see any change there. The Greens might pick up another one but I think that's a pretty long-shot," Dr Simpson said.
He said special votes tend to follow the trend of the rest of the voting.
Dr Simpson said National will form a coalition with Act and United Future with little trouble.
"It looks like they won't have to pull in the Maori Party and go through a lot of hui. Yes, they may well decide to invite the Maori Party to be part of the action but yes, they can proceed," Dr Simpson said.
Political scientist Bryce Edwards agreed, saying Mr Key has already done the hard work getting his partners together but the main area of interest will be whether or not the Maori Party is involved.
"If John Key is strategically looking towards the next election already, he'll at least be wanting to put himself in a good relationship with the Maori Party already," Dr Edwards said.
He said the Maori Party will not find that difficult to sell to their electorate because they are not acting as king maker.
"The Maori Party, therefore could argue they have a lot of policy concessions they could win by being inside the tent, rather than outside of it," he said.
10.02pm: Bradley effect evident in NZ First result
New Zealand First could be the victim of the Bradley theory, a scenario where people tell opinion pollsters what they think they want to hear, not how they will vote.
Political studies lecturer Bryce Edwards said it was un-fashionable to vote New Zealand First.
"It looks like a number of people have told pollsters untruths, that they're not going to vote New Zealand First but they are," he said.
Dr Edwards said New Zealand First are getting more votes than they did in the polls heading into the election but it is still unlikely that New Zealand First will make it over the five per cent threshold.
He said that could cause major problems for Labour who lose a potential coalition partner.
Dr Edwards said Labour and New Zealand First have signed a "non-aggression pact" but Labour still stood candidates against Ron Mark and Winston Peters.
"It looks like New Zealand First are going to get 4 per cent of the vote but that's four per cent that Labour can't use in a coalition," he said.
9.40pm: 'Right side' holding up
Over half the votes have been counted and it is looking increasingly likely that there could be a "right-wing" coalition, says a political science lecturer.
Bryce Edwards from the University of Otago said it is still early days but even if the National and Act block loses one or two per cent, it will still have the numbers.
"The right side of politics is holding up strong," Dr Edwards said.
He said there is a chance that the Maori Party could end up as the king-makers.
9.29pm: Doubts NZ First can make 5 per cent threshold
New Zealand First is on its way out, an expert says.
The party is polling below 4.5 per cent and Winston Peters and Ron Mark are both trailing by a long way in their respective seats.
University of Auckland political science lecturer Jennifer Lees-Marshment said she is not surprised by the initial result for the minor party.
"I expect they'll go down further, it's so difficult to tell at this stage but I'd be surprised if they got over the five per cent," Dr Lees-Marshment said.
She said the early results were coming from the smaller towns and favoured the right-wing parties.
"I think Winston Peters is going to be on his way out after this election," Dr Lees-Marshment said.
She said the troubles that have plagued Mr Peters this year have put people off New Zealand First.
8.54pm: Early results nothing but 'filler'
The early results mean nothing and only give television commentators something to talk about until any real data comes in, says Dr Stephen Levine.
The political science lecturer at Victoria University of Wellington said the early results are only filler.
"If they (commentators) were honest they would say: It is only eight o'clock and we have two hours until we can get some hard data," Dr Levine said.
But the pollsters have so far been proved right with National's lead over Labour and the Greens above five per cent, he said.
"Polling organisations get a lot of criticism when they're wrong and there is a lot of variation in the polls but the big picture of all the polls is being reflected on the night so far," Dr Levine said.
He said one interesting point is New Zealand First's initial result, polling over four per cent so far.
"I'm not sure the polls were having New Zealand First over four per cent, so it keeps New Zealand First competitive but it's another victory for the pollsters in that Simon Bridges is so far ahead of Winston Peters and it was fantasy land for Ron Mark to win Rimutaka," Dr Levine said.
8.21pm: Interesting results unfolding in bell weather seats
It is now an hour since polling booths closed and over five per cent of the votes have been tallied but two political science lecturers agree that the early lead to National means nothing.
Dr Alan Simpson from the University of Waikato said it is still early days but there are some interesting initial results.
"Gallagher (Labour) is second to Macindoe (National) in Hamilton West and that is one that we regard as (one of) our bell weather seats.
"And Winston is way, way, way behind Simon Bridges."
Dr Simpson said it was still early days and he was looking forward to seeing results from Rimutaka where New Zealand First's Ron Mark is competing.
Dr Simpson said it appears Nanaia Mahuta and Parekura Horomia are holding on to their respective Maori seats.
"You've got two senior cabinet ministers there and both Horomia and Mahuta have strong connections into Maoridom," he said.
Dr Simpson said Maori have moved past the Seabed and Foreshore Act and entrenching the Maori seats is now the main issue.
7.51pm: Good weather good for Labour
The good weather will suit Labour, a lecturer in political studies says.
Dr Grant Duncan from Massey University said the good weather would help traditional Labour voters get to a polling booth.
He said traditional Labour voters may not have access to transport and in poor weather, they are less likely to vote.
"If the weather is bad, that is generally bad for Labour," Dr Grant said.
But with blue skies across much of the country today, the weather was in Labour's favour, Dr Grant said.
"That's just going on past traditions," he said.
7.38pm: Too early to draw conclusions
The early lead to National means nothing, Dr Grant Duncan says.
The Massey University lecturer said National traditionally get an early run on party votes and the early lead - National's 49.2 per cent to Labour's 31.4 per cent at 7.30pm - means nothing.
He said the reason behind this is not clear but it could be that traditional Labour voters may have to work on Saturday or it could be that special votes are counted first and traditional National voters are more likely to be able to afford to travel overseas.
"Last election was a typical example of that and early in the evening it was all going National's way and later you just watched that gap close and then late in the evening the results for Roskill and Otahuhu just drove it home for Labour," Dr Duncan said.
He said people needed to be cautious when drawing conclusions from early results.
"I would say a lead of say 10 or 12 points is not good news for John Key, he really needs, early in the evening, a solid lead," Dr Grant said.
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Our panel consists of:
Dr Grant Duncan: A senior lecturer in public policy at Massey University's School of Social and Cultural Studies.
Dr Bryce Edwards: A lecturer of New Zealand politics, public policy, and public management at the University of Otago.
Professor Stephen Levine: A political science lecturer at Victoria University of Wellington who has written on each of New Zealand's MMP elections.
Dr Jennifer Lees-Marshment: A lecturer at the University of Auckland who specialises in political marketing.
Dr Alan Simpson: A senior lecturer at the University of Waikato who teaches international relations. His other interests include comparative politics and New Zealand government and politics.
