As the results of Election 08 begin to roll in we'll bring you analysis from Herald political commentators Audrey Young, Fran O'Sullivan and John Roughan.
KEY POINTS:
01.08am: Election 08 marks a huge night for New Zealand politics
Fran O'Sullivan: This evening was highly symbolic. It saw the departure of two long-serving figures in NZ politics: New Zealand First leader Winston Peters, who is out of politics altogether - at least for now - and Helen Clark, who has announced that she is to stand down as leader of the Labour Party.
Clark's announcement went a lot further than anyone would have expected, so it's been a huge night tonight in New Zealand politics; A big shift, with a new, young, energetic prime minister on the scene, and a departure of two figures who have been major players in New Zealand politics for 30 years.
The bringing back to Parliament of Sir Roger Douglas, who was the driving force behind the Rogernomics reforms of the 1980s, is also an indication that the wheel has turned.
12.31am: Key astute in speaking to Maori Party
Fran O'Sullivan: It was great to see the new Prime Minister reaching back into his history and recapturing the passion he used to display before the campaign began.
It was a confident performance by John Key that touched all the bases and his message that he would govern in the interests of all New Zealanders will be very well welcomely received.
He was gracious in relation to Helen Clark; praising her capacities in a way that went further than has happened in recent times in concession speeches. Key also charted a course for the future which was for an ambitious and prosperous New Zealand. Again, a change in the rhetoric which will be very welcome.
Key was particularly astute in announcing this evening that, not only had he been in touch with ACT leader Rodney Hide and United Future's Peter Dunne so he could assure New Zealanders he did in fact have the support to govern, he also reached across to the Maori Party by calling Tariana Turia.
This opens the way for discussions next week which will lead to some form of agreement between the National-led coalition and the Maori Party in the next Parliamentary term. This is smart politics as it will be very hard for the Key government to increase its vote at the next election, given the difficult and turbulent economic times that lie ahead.
11.40pm: Helen Clark concedes, steps down from Labour leadership
Fran O'Sullivan: A gracious concession by Helen Clark apart from one sour note when she said she hoped everything Labour had worked so hard for wouldn't go up in a right-wing bonfire. Aside from that of course, the major issue is that she has said she is going to stand down and clear the way for a new Labour leader before Christmas.
This will be a surprise to most people because the sense prior to now was that if she lost the election she would stand down, but perhaps not until next year. So the lobbying will start fairly furiously.
Two immediate candidates come to mind: Former Trade Minister Phil Goff, who's just been re-elected to Mt Roskill, and David Cunliffe who is seen as someone who, to some degree, has been a protege of Helen Clark.
11.14pm: Labour faithful awaiting PM
Audrey Young: The Lyndsay Meech quartet is winding up its last number at the Croatian Club in Central Auckland where Helen Clark will arrive soonish.
Ex-Speaker Jonathan Hunt has arrived and been whisked out the back.
There is apparently a chart on a wall in the back here that suggests that the booths yet to to come in will be the whoppers for Labour.
One good friend of Clark's said there was still a belief that National might need the Maori Party to govern. Not many share her confidence.
They would have to be enormous booths to overturn 98.7 per cent of the booths already counted.
But Clark will stay at home in Sandringham until she is absolutely sure of the result.
Judith Tizard has just arrived, having just lost Auckland Central.
Clark's parents too have just arrived so she may not be far behind.
There is a mood of acceptance here, by Labour faithful. No bitterness yet. Perhaps the truth hasn't sunk in yet but there is no sense of pointing the blame at others as the Winston Peters did tonight, true to form.
Helen Clark's speech tonight will be important. It will be a challenge for her to see if the bipartisanship that was so essential for the handling of the financial crisis before the election, endures after the election.
10.58pm: Central city seats reveal interesting results
Fran O'Sullivan: It's all over bar the shouting. Some of the interesting results coming through now are from Wellington Central where Grant Robertson - former staffer working for Helen Clark on the ninth floor - has defeated Stephen Franks.
This means Stephen Franks won't make it back into parliament. He was a former ACT MP who contested Rodney Hide for leadership of the ACT Party but then tried to get back in this election for National and was put way down on the list. National would have had to get over 60 seats in the house for Stephen to get in, so that's another career gone.
The other interesting thing in Auckland Central is seeing the debut of Nikki Kaye taking out Judith Tizard. It's a very intriguing result really and quite an insight into the way things are going.
Winston Peters made a very gracious kind-of concession. He conceded defeat tonight but is not yet conceding that New Zealand First is dead and buried for the future. However for New Zealand First to come back in 2011 would take an extraordinary feat and would be very difficult to do as a party without any seats in parliament.
10.24pm: Waitakere, New Plymouth and West Coast indicate mood for change
John Roughan: At this stage I'd say it's even more certain for a National government. When you've got electorates like Waitakere, New Plymouth and West Coast going to National, that's the sort of thing that used to happen in landslide swings in the old FPP system and even though MMP will make things closer it's a pretty definite trend and the result looks pretty certain now.
10.12pm: ACT votes sending a message to National
Fran O'Sullivan: I'm definitely calling it for National but one of the big things coming through tonight has been the performance of ACT. That significant vote of around 3.7 - giving them at this stage of the evening around 5 seats in parliament - is a bit of a message to National that a number of their centre-right voters want ACT in there to stiffen the backbone of National.
There's a strong sense that National has moved incredibly towards the centre compared to, say, the 2005 election. This is very much a message from its voter base by bringing in ACT that they'll be expected to keep their policies in a much more stringent fashion than might otherwise be the case.
The results coming out of Rimutaka suggests that New Zealand First hasn't made it back and that's quite historic in terms of it being 'Goodnight Nurse' for Winston Peters.
9.34pm: A dozen Labour-held seats under threat
Audrey Young: National is way out in front and it looks like it will be able to form a Government with Act and United Future, if, as looks likely, New Zealand First comes in under five per cent.
That's if United Future leader Peter Dunne actually wins his seat. With almost a third of votes cast in Ohariu, Dunne is ahead of sitting Labour list MP Charles Chauvel but by only 255 votes.
There are some very close electorate contests underway. About a dozen Labour-held seats are under threat tonight from National Party challengers.
The latest two to get close are Waitakere, where list MP Paula Bennett is just ahead of Labour's Lynne Pillay, a former union organiser.
And top union official Carol Beaumont is under threat in Maungakiekie from Sam Lotu-Liga. Beaumont won selection after longer-serving MP Mark Gosche retired. Lotu-liga is an Auckland City Councillor.
Among the seats under threat are seven held by ministers: Damien O'connor in West Coast-Tasman, Harry Duynhoven in New Plymouth; Judith Tizard in Auckland Central, Clayton Cosgrove in Waimakariri; Darren Hughes in Otaki, Steve Chadwick in Rotorua; and Mahara Okeroa in Te Tai Tonga.
It is too early to say that they will lose their seats but wther or not they survive will depend on the final vote, the number of electorate seats and their list placings. But Duyhoven llike George Hakwins chose not to be on the list and so has no life line.
With more than 60 per cent of the vote counted, Jonathan Young (a brother) is ahead by 823 votes.
As I have been writing this Pillay has just regained the lead over Paula Bennett in Waitakere but this seat has not been considered a close one.
My next post will be from Labour HQ.
9.11pm: Significant shift apparent
Fran O'Sullivan says that at this point of the 2005 election people called victory for National too early.
"This time around I'm calling victory now. The trend's there. I'm pretty confident that what we're seeing in some of the seats - Auckland Central, seats like that - is indicating a significant shift."
She said the biggest surprise of the night so far was that the Greens were not coming through as strongly as she had originally expected given what the polls have been indicating this week.
"We've still got those big South Auckland seats to come through though, so we'll be watching right into the night.
"I've been quite surprised that NZ First has polled as high as it has (around 4.5 percentage points) but unless they can bring home Rimutaka for Ron Mark it's looking as if it's a gonner for Winston Peters."
8.04pm: Trend looks fairly decisive
John Roughan says while early votes traditionally favour National, the trend is already looking fairly decisive.
"It's looking like the polls are correct," he said.
"It's looking like a National government."
