Northland weather: January to March warm and moist, with chance of high humidity

Beaches like Matapouri, above, could be the place to be over the next few months as the El Nino weather pattern brings warm weather. Photo / Michael Cunningham

Just as it looks like summer has finally arrived in Northland with the recent sun, the experts are predicting more rain, possibly getting heavy, later this month.

And while the warm weather will continue, the humidity is likely to stick around too - or get even worse - at least for the rest of January.

The Niwa Climate Outlook for January- March confirms that the El Nino weather system has a 100 per cent chance of persisting through into March.

Although it will continue to have an important influence on the country’s climate, unusual ocean heat in the western Pacific and globally has contributed to circulation patterns that are not historically associated with El Nino, Chris Brandolino, principal scientist – forecasting and media, at the Niwa National Climate Centre, said.

That makes predicting exactly what will happen with El Nino more difficult.

But, Brandolino said, for Northland during the three-month period temperatures are very likely to be above average, with spells of hot and very humid conditions expected in mid-to-late January.

As well, he said, rainfall totals are most likely to be near normal, but spells of heavy rain may occur in the second half of January.

‘’However, the season may also be defined by longer dry spells, particularly in February-March.’’

Brandolino said the last 10 to 15 days of January are ones to watch in terms of possible heavy rain. It was during last January that Northland was hit by storms from Cyclone Hale and the Northland/ Auckland Anniversary Weekend event that caused widespread flooding and slips.

It’s unlikely to be as bad this month, but Niwa is warning that there could still be plenty of rain as moisture from the tropics could well descend on the region, adding to the already moist, damp air.

Storms last January, including Cyclone Hale and the Northland/ Auckland Anniversary Weekend downpour caused major flooding across Northland - and more could be on the way later this month

‘’As this week ends and into next week there’ll be some warm and humid conditions, before (the moist air is expected to arrive).’’

He said marine heatwaves north of New Zealand may enhance the heat and humidity associated with air masses that track towards the country, such as in mid-to-late January. This may cause a marine heatwave to develop or intensify near the North Island.

‘’The ocean temperatures at the moment are very much warmer than usual, particularly along eastern Northland. If we get the expected warmth from the Coral Sea, that could push (the sea temperatures in Northland) even higher,’’ he said.

While that might sound like good news for beachgoers, it could also lead to even more humidity for the region - something Northlanders have had plenty of in the past month or so.

‘’If we see that happening it will get unusually warm and that will load the dice to ultimately give you more humidity. So the sting in the tail (from warmer sea temperatures) could be more humidity for you.’’

However, February and March are likely to be very dry, and although the NZ drought index map at niwa.co.nz/climate/information-and-resources/drought-monitor doesn’t show any areas close to drought at the moment, Brandolino said that could change and people should keep an eye on the index for updates as Northland could yet suffer another drought.

■ The Niwa Climate Summary for 2023 - highlighting last year’s weather - will be released on Wednesday.