'No shocks' Labour easily stifles National attacks

Just as National gets its hands on some election fodder, Helen Clark's quick-fix government quashes it. By JOHN ARMSTRONG.

The self-strangulation of the Alliance aside, it has been an abnormally placid start to an election year. And the Prime Minister Helen Clark will be working to keep it that way.

She has forged a reputation as a tough operator capable of making the hard decisions. But it is not quite that simple. She has not been faced with having to make really unpopular decisions. A benign economy has allowed her to run a benign government that has scrupulously avoided doing things that annoy middle New Zealand.

Take petrol tax. A small rise of 4c a litre will provide a bit extra for Auckland's roads. That's Clark's modus operandi. Take a bit here. And do a bit there. Move cautiously. Flag what you are doing before you do it. No shocks. No surprises. And if something does go wrong, fix it. And quickly.

All of which makes the Labour-Alliance coalition a difficult government for Bill English to attack. For example, Opposition parties had hoped to exploit a provision in the Sentencing and Parole Reform Bill which raised the possibility of some offenders serving only a third of their jail terms. A more obstinate government afflicted with ministerial machismo might have toughed it out. Not this one. No one is going to accuse Phil Goff of being soft on law and order in election year. The bill will be amended to give judges the flexibility to impose minimum non-parole periods. Problem solved, Opposition stifled.

The "shut-it-down" principle was likewise applied to Tuku Morgan's $1.8 million documentary series for Maori television. Clark wasted no time endorsing, if not prompting, an Audit Office scrutiny of the funding. The problem is the new Maori television channel will operate at arm's length, but any embarrassments will still rebound on the Government. Likewise with Kiwibank. For that reason, both fledgling enterprises are being closely monitored by the Beehive's damage-control teams.

Sitting in Opposition through the turbulent 1990s, Clark deduced that voters want respite from all-knowing, all-action governments. Having put voters to sleep, Labour's worry is that its traditional supporters become so complacent of victory in November they do not bother to turn out and vote.

That could deprive Clark of the extra seats she needs to compensate for the ones the imploding Alliance will lose, and to reduce the leverage of the Greens, who will be far from compliant either inside or outside a coalition.

Should the Alliance disintegrate this side of the election and undermine the Government's stability, Labour is in such a strong position it could simply go to the polls early - a luxury denied Jenny Shipley when her coalition with NZ First collapsed in 1998.

Confronted with opinion polls consistently showing the centre-left parties way in front of the centre-right, English bravely talks of National winning more seats than Labour - a slightly more achievable proposition than National and Act securing more than Labour, the Alliance and the Greens combined. English argues that defeating Labour will give National, as the party with the biggest vote, the "moral right" to have first call on trying to form the next government.

However, for the sake of self-respect, his first goal must be to lift National's share of the vote a good few notches above its 1999 level of 30.5 per cent - a historic low.

To that end, English is pitching a ruddy conservatism at recapturing National's "heartland" of provincial New Zealand, presently swathed in the colour of Labour's red rose. But he faces a paradox.

To get attention - and secure votes - English must excite an electorate which does not seem to be in the mood for excitement.

His other problem is that last October's leadership change inevitably delayed the release of new policy, leaving the expectations of supporters, actual and potential, unfulfilled.

On the positive side, National strategists argue the Prime Minister is becoming over-confident, moving beyond her usually risk-averse boundaries and saying and doing things that are alienating her from some voters.

They also point to last month's "innovation strategy" flop as highlighting Labour's inability to provide policies which will substantially boost New Zealand's long-term economic performance. They say that policy deficit will be further exposed in the budget in May - and subsequently by National's more far-reaching proposals such as lower company tax rates.

However, claiming the high ground in the argument over economic management is still a long way from winning the bigger battle when 60 per cent of voters think the country is heading in the right direction under Labour.