Niwa says we should be in for a dry Spring

The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) has issued its forecast for the next three months, saying an El Nino weather system may lead to early spring frosts causing headaches for fruitgrowers.

Sea temperatures across the equatorial Pacific are warmer than normal, Niwa said in a statement today, and if they persist a weak El Nino will develop over Spring.

This could mean more anticyclones over the Tasman sea, which would cause more southwesterlies across the South Island, and drier weather across the country as a whole.

Warmer temperatures than normal are likely in Gisborne, Hawke's Bay and Wairarapa, with most other places expected to have average temperatures.

Most of the country is likely to get average to below average rainfall, except the west and south of the South Island, which is likely to see normal levels.

Niwa climate scientist Dr Jim Renwick said the combination of clear skies and fairly dry conditions meant there could be more cooling at night time than usual.

"So on that basis we might have a bit more risk of early Spring frosts," he said.

Grape and kiwifruit growers and other horticulturists, especially those in eastern regions, could have their crops affected by the frosts, he said.

"It's a very sensitive time of year for ... the formation of fruit. Frost can damage the buds or the fruit as it starts to grow."

- NZPA