Simon Wilson: Do New Zealanders really want ‘strong leaders’ and think the economy is rigged? Thoughts on an Ipsos poll

Dame Jacinda Ardern (centre) with (left top to bottom) Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu and (right left to right) Winston Peters, Christopher Luxon and David Seymor. Composite photo

OPINION

Oh no, now we’re broken and in decline! Or so most of us think, according to a new survey revealed last week.

Also, we want a strong leader to fix things up. No, this is not about the poor Crusaders fans.

In late February, an Ipsos poll asked 1001 New Zealanders about their “hopes for the future and the state of the nation”. Fifty-eight per cent of us said the country is “broken” and 60 per cent said it’s “in decline”.

The survey was conducted in other countries, too, and it turns out our results are almost bang on the average: 57 per cent for broken and 58 per cent for in decline.

And 54 per cent of us agreed with the statement: “To fix New Zealand, we need a strong leader willing to break the rules”.

Well, hang on.

Are we really hankering for a strong leader? Didn’t we just have one? From March 2020 until late in the Covid pandemic, we had one of the strongest leaders in the world.

Dame Jacinda Ardern locked us all down, forbade travel and social contact with family members even if they were dying, made it really hard for New Zealanders to return home, and cancelled almost everything.

You don’t get much stronger than that.

True, she didn’t break the rules - on the contrary, she introduced a strict set of universal rules which everyone had to follow. But those Covid rules were in breach of every social norm we rely on.

I’m not saying she was wrong to do it. I’m extremely proud of this country’s response to Covid. I’m extremely grateful we didn’t have weak leaders like Boris Johnson and Donald Trump in charge - blokes full of bluster who didn’t have a blessed clue what to do.

Both Britain and the United States had a Covid death rate about six times higher, per capita, than ours, and came out of the pandemic with weaker economies.

I think it’s appalling the way Ardern gets pilloried now for her leadership through the pandemic.

But I’m just going to guess many of the folks hankering for a strong leader are not hoping to get Ardern back. They’d be among her loudest enemies, wouldn’t they?

What do they really want? The answer is that “strong leader” is code.

It doesn’t mean someone who’ll get tough with us for the greater good. It means a leader who won’t get tough with “us” at all, but will deal with “them”. Who’s “them”? Whoever it is you think is causing unacceptable problems.

“Strong leaders” are the ones who demonise “them”.

Oddly, more than a few people seem to think the leaders who are best at this are businessmen in suits.

Which is ironic, given that the current archetype, Christopher Luxon, has a pair of deputies who seem to enjoy making him look politically impotent on an almost daily basis.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon watches as his deputy Winston Peters and deputy-in-waiting David Seymour shake hands. Photo / Mark Mitchell

There are several problems with the Ipsos story. One is that it shouldn’t be any kind of shock that citizens of the world are worried. It’s a perfectly rational response.

The signs that things are broken are everywhere: in Ukraine, Gaza, the rise of Trump in America, the rise of mini-Trumps in many other countries, the distressing failure of China to move towards democracy, the catastrophic damage being done by social media corporates and looming over everything, the climate crisis.

At home, the signs are there in the cost of living and the ongoing crises in health, schooling and social housing. In a hundred different ways, we know people are getting angrier and social cohesion is fraying badly.

At home and abroad, what makes it even more distressing is the apparent inability of Governments and other leaders to arrest the flow of trauma and tragedy, or even just to get things done.

Putin has not been stopped in Ukraine and Netanyahu will not be deterred from attacking Gaza - where the International Court of Justice has said it is “plausible” Israel’s actions ammount to genocide. Fossil-fuel tycoons have renewed their plunder of the planet and Mark Zuckerberg is beyond redemption.

It’s like they’re warlords, haplessly destroying the world we live in and too powerful to stop.

Or are they?

The survey also asked another “strong leader” question. Did respondents agree with the statement: “New Zealand needs a strong leader to take the country back from the rich and powerful”? A remarkable 66 per cent said yes.

And to the statement, “The economy is rigged to advantage the rich and powerful,” two-thirds said yes to that as well.

That’s intriguing, in a country that voted only six months ago for a coalition Government in which all three parties have close links to the rich and powerful.

Will it give the Government pause for thought about its fast-track infrastructure legislation? That bill spits in the eye of democratic processes and environmental safeguards. It unleashes crony capitalism and invites corruption into the decision-making process.

And it seems likely to endanger both climate action and biodiversity, both of which New Zealanders consistently say are important.

It’s not shocking that 60 per cent of us think things are broken. Given the state of things, what’s shocking is that 40 per cent don’t think this. Which rocks are they hiding under?

Of course we’re upset and of course we wish we had political leaders with the personal character and political skills to fix things.

“Traditional parties and politicians don’t care about people like me,” said 55 per cent of us.

Prompted statements about strong leaders, a broken country and an alienated citizenry suggest a society that’s susceptible to right-wing populism. But just because we’re fed up, it doesn’t follow we’re hanging out for our own Donald Trump.

The thing is, these are the wrong questions to ask.

What if, instead, a survey asked: when was the last time you went to a show and had a great time? Bet the people at - picking randomly here - Womad in March didn’t think society was broken.

Tamariki and their adults, along with plenty of volunteers, took part in the popular kids parade on Sunday, March 17 as part of the Womad NZ 2024 festivities. Photo / Ilona Hanne

And what if a survey asked: should the pay and working conditions of nurses be good enough to stop them fleeing to Australia? Bet that would score pretty much 100 per cent.

What about: do we want more social housing, quickly? Do we want clean water and clean beaches? Do we want more swimming pools, parks and playgrounds? Do we want a lower road toll and less traffic congestion?

Should more be done - much more - to help at-risk little kids grow up to live productive, socially well-adjusted lives, rather than turn to violence and crime?

Who’s going to say no? What about: do banks and supermarkets make too much money?

All Governments talk about these things, or most of them. But why don’t they take them more seriously?

Do we want climate and economic planning to be integrated? Do we want better community support in the face of wild-weather disasters and fraying social cohesion?

You can imagine a survey with questions like these might be empowering for a “strong leader” with the skills to change things for the better, working within a strong democratic framework.

If all you do is ask people how terrible they feel, the outcome will be to fill them with despair. Doomscrolling on your phone is bad enough without having to confront doomsurveying as well.

We do need to know when things are dire. I get that. Naming the problem is always important. But we also need hope. We need to be able to name the solutions and we need plans, protest and action to achieve them.

There was a big lesson for us in the Covid pandemic and it’s not too late to learn it.

No, not that lockdowns are necessary in a pandemic: they already knew that with the plague in the Middle Ages. Nor that they’re an affront to democracy.

We fought Covid the way we’ve always known you fight a war: with strict rules and a social licence to implement them. The big lesson was that society really can move en masse to overcome a crisis. Where there’s a social will, there’s a way.

We can gear ourselves to fight a common enemy and win. If we wanted, we could do again: with poverty and economic opportunity, with the climate, with meaningful democratic processes.

Optimism, good planning and social engagement. Hope needs to be nurtured, and those are the things that do it.

Simon Wilson is an award-winning senior writer covering politics, the climate crisis, transport, housing, urban design and social issues, with a focus on Auckland. He joined the Herald in 2018.