Auckland's public transport funding crisis threatens to leave fast-growing suburbs such as Flat Bush in Manukau City without buses in their early boom years.
This is despite an acknowledgement by transport planners that new home-owners need early access to public transport if they are not to worsen congestion by buying more cheap second-hand cars.
The Government intends building seven new schools in Flat Bush for about $270 million to cater for population growth from 3000 now to 40,000 in 15 years but Manukau Mayor Sir Barry Curtis yesterday bemoaned a lack of regional funding for bus services to match.
Waitakere City is also concerned that a potential $1.4 billion shortfall in regional and Government funds for public transport over 10 years will prevent buses being re-routed to connect to trains at its new $40 million-plus civic centre in Henderson.
The funding shortfall, even after a $1.6 billion commitment from the Auckland Regional Council, means the region's transport authority is giving priority for the next five years to strengthening the spine of a rapid transit network.
New bus services to feed the network will generally have to wait until after 2011.
Rapid transit for Auckland means completing the $290 million Northern Busway by early 2008 and upgrading the rail system south of the Waitemata Harbour.
Although the Government is paying for much of the busway, and has set aside $600 million for rail-track development, the Auckland Regional Transport Authority faces a big bill to operate existing and new services.
It also wants to buy a fleet of 30 new electric trains, although the Government is dubious about funding rail electrification before seeing a business case which the authority's board is due to start considering today.
A budget of $4.89 billion over 10 years required for full implementation of the authority's draft passenger transport network plan, on which submissions close next week, would include operating expenditure of $2.26 billion.
But a regional council commitment to limiting annual rates to about 5 per cent, after having faced what chairman Mike Lee says was a "lynch mob" when it imposed an average 34 per cent increase in 2003, threatens to leave the authority $1.4 billion short.
Although the council has agreed to cover all but $700 million of a request by the authority for $2.3 billion, the shortfall would be doubled by the loss of a matching Government subsidy.
Sir Barry told the council in a submission yesterday that Manukau would support any joint approach to the Government for additional funding tools, such as a regional petrol tax, in pursuit of "the 21st century transport system that Auckland deserves".
But he said that if all else failed, the council should consider raising its regional rate higher than 4.9 per cent.
Although not advocating a 17 per cent rise which the council says would be needed each year to close the funding gap, he produced figures indicating that a 12.5 per cent increase would cost his residents no more than about $9.50 to $36, depending on property values.
Mr Lee said the region was more than prepared to continue to pull its weight, having surpassed Government spending on the rail network so far and arranged for its Auckland Regional Holdings subsidiary to invest $1 billion in transport over 10 years.
He said that if the Government was prepared to support a world-class rail system, including electrification, "we will put in our stake".
He told the Herald last night that his council was looking very seriously at what to do about Flat Bush.
Although he could give no details of a possible remedy, he noted that the council had yet to confirm its budget.
At the same time, he accused Manukau of sowing seeds of "a potentially catastrophic congestion problem" by approving big new subdivisions without provision for public transport.
Mr Lee said Sir Barry had instead chosen to rely on the doomed car-based eastern highway proposal to service areas such as Flat Bush, and was only now starting to talk about a public transport alternative.
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