New poll deals another blow to Labour

National has retained a commanding lead over Labour in a Herald poll out today despite revelations about Don Brash's affair and controversy over the Exclusive Brethren.

The poll of 500 people by the New Zealand Herald and DigiPoll has National ahead on 45.7 per cent with Labour lagging on 38 per cent.

The poll, conducted over the weekend, is the third in a row by the Herald and the Herald on Sunday to have National getting 45 per cent of the vote and Labour around 38.

It also comes after the One News/Colmar Brunton poll, aired last night, had National on 49 per cent, well ahead of Labour on 38 per cent support.

Prime Minister Helen Clark has tried to downplay the TVNZ poll saying it did not take into account revelations on Friday night that the Exclusive Brethren had hired private investigators to dig dirt on senior Labour figures.

But the Herald poll, which has a margin of error of 4.4 per cent, was taken as the accounts of the Exclusive Brethren involvement were in the media.

The poll has good news for the Greens (on 6.8 per cent, up from 5.8 per cent a month ago) and the Maori Party (on 4.1 per cent, from 3.4 per cent a month ago)

But it shows New Zealand First (1.6 per cent), Act (1.4 per cent), United Future (0.7 per cent) and the Progressives (0.3 per cent) failing to make any impact.

National has maintained a huge gap over Labour among male voters. Some 49.6 per cent of men support National compaed to 33.3 per cent for Labour. At the same time, National and Labour are neck and neck among female voters: 42.7 per cent favouring Labour to 42.3 per cent supporting National.

The poll also asked people to rate Don Brash and Helen Clark on their honesty in the wake of Dr Brash's alleged extra-marital affair, Labour's refusal to pay back taxpayers money used in election spending and the Prime Minister's comments that Dr Brash is "cancerous".


Assuming every party leader with an electorate seat retains it, here is what the poll would mean for seats in Parliament:

National would have 57 seats, well ahead of Labour's 47. But while National would have a gap on its chief rival, it would still need the support of either the Greens (8 seats), or the Maori Party (5 seats) to govern. Even with the support of Act (2 seats) and United Future (1 seat), National would still fall short of the 61 seats required, in a Parliament which would have an overhang of one seat and therefore 121 seats.

Labour could itself try to stitch together a coalition deal - it would need to get the Greens, Progressives, and Maori Party on board.

With no electorate seat and a vote that falls short of the 5 per cent threshold, New Zealand First would be out of Parliament under the poll scenario.

* Full results of the Herald-Digipoll will be released tomorrow in the New Zealand Herald and on nzherald.co.nz.