Net inflow of migrants to ease, says economist

Increasing departures to Australia for work opportunities seen as a major factor. Photo / Supplied

The net inflow of migrants held up last month, albeit at below-par levels.

There was a net gain of 1400 permanent and long-term migrants - or 600 when adjusted for seasonal effects - the same as in October, Statistics New Zealand said.

In the year ended November, there was a net gain of 11,500 migrants, which is in line with the average 11,900 annual gain of the past 20 years.

"Over the past year, the annual inflow of net migration has been slowing as the number of departures has been rising, largely due to an increase in departures to Australia," ASB economist Jane Turner said.

"With Australian employment growth continuing to outperform labour market conditions in New Zealand, we expect departures will continue to lift. This will see the current pace of annual inflow ease from around 12,000 per annum in recent months to around 5000 to 6000."

Slowing net migration was contributing to weak demand for new housing and weak retail spending growth, Turner said.

"We expect that net migration will remain subdued for the time being and remain a key factor in household sector being less of a driver of growth in the current economic recovery."

Goldman Sachs economist Philip Borkin said that while the current level of net migration was helping to provide a floor under the housing market and domestic demand, it was not at a rate to trigger meaningful house price increases. "Nevertheless, it is something we are watching closely. As the experience over the middle of this year [when immigration dropped steeply] attests, net migration flows can turn relatively sharply."

Permanent and long-term migrants are defined, on the arrivals side, as overseas migrants who intend to stay in New Zealand for at least a year plus New Zealanders returning after an absence of at least a year; and on the departures side, New Zealand residents leaving for at least a year plus overseas visitors departing after a stay of a year or more.

In the year to November, the highest net inflow was from India (6300), outstripping the United Kingdom (4500).

The largest net loss of people was to Australia - 20,100 - up from 19,500 the year before but still well down on the 35,000 net outflow in the year to November 2008.