Nervy time for ABs supporters

Love him or hate him, Cooper will always be a potential match winner ... Fasten your seatbelts - you are in for bumpy ride.

That would be my advice to All Blacks fans as they prepare for their team's Rugby World Cup semifinal clash with Australia at Eden Park, Auckland, tomorrow evening.

If rugby was a sport where the better team always won, the money would be on the ABs big time. On paper there are a couple of areas where the Wallabies could rightfully fancy their chances of at least breaking even but if you take a hard, close look at the strengths and deficiencies of the two teams, the ABs should win, and by a double-figure margin at that.

As we've said often before, however, the word "should" often bears little relation to what actually happens on the field of play, and there is good reason for the nervousness of millions of New Zealanders about the result of this particular match.

First and foremost is the confidence Robbie Deans and his band of merry men from across the Tasman would have taken from their quarter-final win over South Africa, the defending champions.

And that's not because history shows that since the very first World Cup in 1987 - you know, the only one yet won by the ABs - the team that knocked out the defending champs have gone to lift the Webb Ellis Trophy. No, it's because the Aussies came second to the Boks basically everywhere but on the scoreboard, something which was a testimony to their character and resilience. Sure, they took a few knocks and bruises along the way but they were able to dig deep enough when it really mattered to grab the spoils.

Secondly, the Aussies won despite their playmaker in the crucial No10 jersey, Quade Cooper, having an absolute shocker. He couldn't play any worse against the ABs if he tried and, of course, there is always the worry that come tomorrow the dancing feet and rapid acceleration will be there for all to see. Love him or hate him, Cooper will always be a potential match winner and if the ABs are guilty of taking their eye off him for even a fleeting moment they could find themselves standing behind their own goalposts, contemplating just why they fell into that trap.

Thirdly, the pressure of expectation. No matter how relaxed they have looked through their World Cup campaign - and as human nature dictates - the ABs can't help but feel the pride of an entire nation is on their shoulders. Hundreds of World Cup final parties have already been organised all over the country.

The Aussies, on the other hand, will be happy to accept the tag of underdogs, as indeed they were against the Boks last weekend. In fact, they will be relishing all the talk about their Eden Park hoodoo and anything else that gives the ABs a perceived advantage. Encouraging it even. The more anxiety they can create in the ABs camp the better for them.

It is the latter point that hammers home for me just how big a part the first 20 minutes of play will have in the end result.

If the Wallabies can place doubt in the ABs minds by building a handy lead in that period of play they will be doing themselves a huge favour.

Conversely if it is the ABs who quickly erase any nervous tension by making the early running their transtasman rivals could be in for a long day at the office. Yes, they did strike back against the Boks when the chips were down, but you get the feeling the ABs, aided and abetted by their adoring fans, will be a tad more difficult to overcome if they happen to get their noses in front.

It is vital to the ABs' cause that their forwards come out breathing fire and that halfback Piri Weepu is spot on with his tactical kicking, aimed at keeping them on the front foot from the word go.

Pinning the Aussies deep in their own half for long periods, thereby restricting the amount of quality ball given their inventive backs to minuscule proportions, is the best recipe for success - no question of that.

I wouldn't be prepared to bet big money on it but I'll plump for an ABs win by 8 to 10 points.

That being the case, who then between France and Wales, who clash in Auckland tonight?

Will they meet - and very probably beat - in the following weekend's grand final?

With both sides likely to play an expansive style of rugby this should be entertainment-plus and a lot will depend on which French team turns up. If it is the one that ousted the Poms in the quarters last weekend the Welsh will find them a real handful, but because France is famous for their unpredictability that certainly can't be guaranteed. Wales by 10 points maybe ... and then watch NZRU officials start beating the feet towards Warren Gatland's door.