By Greg Ansley
Canberra bureau chief
The Royal New Zealand Navy may buy two second-hand guided missile frigates to replace the obsolete HMNZS Canterbury.
Although the option of a third Anzac frigate is still open, support is growing for an alternative that will maintain a blue-water fleet of four capable ships and ease the huge cost of buying replacements in the future.
The most likely option appears to be American Oliver Hazard Perry class frigates - assessed earlier by the Navy as a possible Anzac alternative - although British Type 22 and other ships may be considered.
The recommendations of the Navy's future development project, however, will need to be framed to take account of political developments and the possibility of new defence priorities.
The report of the development and operations division on the replacement of the Canterbury - due to be paid off in 2005 - is not expected to be presented to the Government until next year.
Polls suggest the report will be handed to a Labour government. Labour is less sympathetic to a four-frigate Navy and has indicated support for the parliamentary foreign affairs, defence and trade committee's interim recommendation for a niche defence force.
Although the committee's final report has yet to be completed, the clear emphasis of its initial paper is on the Army, with maritime patrol forces ranked third of four defence priorities.
It is possible that political weight could fall against even a single new frigate to replace the Canterbury and favour instead other ships suited more to fisheries patrol, Pacific Island emergencies, or Army support.
But with heavyweight diplomatic support from other regional Governments - notably Australia - which would greet a further rundown in blue-water capability with dismay, the Navy will argue strongly for at least three frigates.
The case for a fourth rests on purchase cost (two used ships would probably cost less than a single new Anzac), economies of scale and the logistics of keeping one of a new pair operational at all times.
Any used ships would still have an operational life of about 15 years, which, with the expected life of the Anzacs, would allow the Navy to break its replacement programme into two and avoid the huge costs of buying a future fleet in one go.
The Perry class is considered to be a very capable ship. It has a range of weapons systems, sensors, electrical and engineering systems in common with Anzac frigates, plus SM1 missiles that would give the Navy a long-range anti-aircraft defence capability for the first time.
Perry class frigates would also maintain some level of inter-operability with Australia, although the Royal Australian Navy is about to spend about $A150 million ($185 million) on each of its ships to improve weapons and engineering systems.
A spokesman for the Minister of Defence, Max Bradford, said last night that the Perry class frigates were one of many options for the Government.
"They will probably be considered by the current Naval combat study announced at the end of last year. Quite frankly, though, there are a lot of options."
There was no set deadline for the study to be completed.
Navy eyes two frigates to replace one
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