National's poll surge looks good for Brash

The job of embattled National leader Don Brash as party leader seems safe for now, with a big jump in National's poll ratings likely to foil any move against him.

In last night's One News-Colmar Brunton poll National opened up an 11-point lead over Labour, an indication that Labour's refusal to pay back the cost of its election pledge card is hurting it politically and that its retaliatory attacks on Dr Brash may have backfired.

Senior National MPs spoken to yesterday were united in saying Dr Brash's leadership would not be raised at tomorrow's caucus meeting - the first time MPs have met since a string of reports about Dr Brash's private life and revelations about the activities of the Exclusive Brethren sect were publicised.

National insiders believe the poll results are a referendum on the performance of the Government rather than an expression of sympathy for Dr Brash after his personal life was made public.

National went up four points to 49 per cent in the poll and Labour slipped five to 38 per cent. The Green Party, which is repaying some election funds, rose three points to 6 per cent.

A spokesman for Prime Minister Helen Clark said she felt National's result was "a bit high" and that people polled would not have taken the Exclusive Brethren factor into account.

Labour had averaged around 40 per cent in recent polls, the same sort of percentage it had won in the past two elections, the spokesman said.

National deputy leader Gerry Brownlee said this was not the first time journalists had written of rumblings in the party about Dr Brash's leadership and it probably wouldn't be the last.

"I read of them, but have no indication from inside the caucus. There is no activity around anybody else."

The man most often tipped as the next National leader, finance spokesman John Key, insisted tomorrow's caucus would focus on policy discussions.

"My perception is that Tuesday is going to be pretty chocker with policy and ... people are very much looking forward to focusing on that."

Dr Brash, who turned 66 yesterday, said he was spending the day with family and not making any comment.

However, National may still have problems over its relationship with the secretive Exclusive Brethren.

During the election campaign Dr Brash was forced to admit having discussed Brethren-financed anti-Green and anti-Labour election material in a meeting with the group after having previously denied he knew about the pamphlets.

On TV One's Agenda programme on Saturday Dr Brash said he had held one meeting with them since the election.

"It was quite a short meeting. We certainly did not talk about following people, shadowing people, or anything which was even remotely improper."

He later told TV3 he did not plan to meet them again, after confirmation that the Brethren had paid a private investigator to spy on Labour MPs and the Prime Minister.

Mr Brownlee yesterday admitted National would find it difficult to convince voters the party had no links with the Exclusive Brethren.

"The problem you've got with this issue is that this is a group of people who have got an agenda. They have decided to make an attempt at usurping our position in politics to advance their own. That's not appreciated, not acceptable."

Mr Brownlee and economic development spokeswoman Katherine Rich were quoted in yesterday's Sunday Star-Times as saying the Exclusive Brethren cost National the 2005 election.

Yesterday each said the comments were made before revelations the Brethren had Labour figures tailed and that Dr Brash had met the Brethren since the election.

That was no indication of any formal arrangement between National and the Exclusive Brethren, Mr Brownlee said.

Ms Rich said her comments were not disloyal and were expressing a view that undecided and women voters could have turned against National because of the Brethren campaign.