KEY POINTS:
The National Party is in buoyant mood due in large part to the relationship between its leader and deputy. The Herald's political staff ask John Key and Bill English whether they can stay ahead
The John Key/Bill English Relationship
John, what is Bill English's best attribute and what can you learn from him?
JK: His intelligence and his experience. He knows where all the bones are buried. Bill, what is John Key's best attribute?
BE: He's relentlessly positive.
Labour has been taunting you, Bill, about your statement in North and South that John "bounces from cloud to cloud". What did you mean and do you regret saying that?
BE: No, not at all. He's happy. John has such a positive and confident temperament, and it's great to work with him for that reason. That was really just contrasting the personalities. I think that contrast's pretty obvious to the caucus and to the public. Are you friends or just professionals?
JK: A growing friendship. We've got together as families. I think you can overstate the competitive rivalry. We've got a joint goal, and that is to see National in government. We work well at a professional level together; personally we like each other. We have differences in the style of things that we do, and I think that is true of any two individuals. But we're politically extremely similar. We might come to the solution of a problem from a slightly different angle and with slightly different experiences, but we come up with the same answer together.
Labour has tried to exploit differences in tone and language between the two of you. Do you think you need to tighten up?
BE: Maybe here and there. But I think it's pathetic.
JK: It's a sign that they don't have a lot to go on. If we gave exactly the same words in every answer we gave, then they're scripted answers. We don't spend every two seconds in each other's office. We spend a hell of a lot of time together, but in the end, we're confident in each other's ability enough to be able to say "look, this is what we think on these things". It's about confidence and trust in a relationship. I see it as a strength.
National party policy and tax
Bill, is the public expectation around future personal tax cuts too high as a result of what was offered in 2005?
BE: The public would expect a National government to make a significant difference to the tax regime. Probably the expectation of a single big hit would be too high. We've talked for some time now about a credible programme of tax cuts rather than a big hit.
John, could tax be the defining issue in the 2008 election campaign, or is it getting hackneyed as Helen Clark claims?
JK: That just shows how out of touch with New Zealanders she is. They're facing massive increases in mortgage rates and other costs of living, and she's telling them that getting to keep a little bit more of their own money is hackneyed. I'm sorry, I just don't buy that. I think it is a philosophical difference between the two parties. It's an important issue that will define our government. Bill's right, it never was about and never will be about one big bang approach to tax cuts. But it will underpin our government.
Where are National's policy ideas coming from? Are you getting outside advice, drawing on examples from other countries?
JK: We've got a sense of the goals we want to achieve. We can see productivity falling dramatically, we can see a million New Zealanders have left the country, we can see failure in the education system, a bureaucracy that's just not delivering. We're taking a fairly broad brush approach to finding solutions. We look at what we see working overseas. There's an endless supply of people domestically that want to offer up solutions, and clearly the caucus has its own ideas. There's no one specific group that's overly influencing us.
Do you accept Labour will always be ahead of you on policy detail?
JK: No. There's no point in whingeing about being the Leader of the Opposition and being under resourced. But the fact is they have thousands of policy analysts and bureaucrats who can play a role in policy development.
Secondly, if they are so successful at having policy detail, why is it after eight years they need a Royal Commission of Inquiry into sorting out Auckland's problems? Why is it that things are getting worse, not getting better? I think they have some advantages in the machinery of government. But from an Opposition perspective we're taking policy development very seriously.
When will we see the detail of National's bigger policies, such as education, health, law and order?
JK: We've got somewhere between 14 and 15 months to run. There's an element of fatigue that would take place if we announced too much now. But I anticipate starting from the early part of next year ... I don't make any apology for making it very clear at a macro level where we're going. I actually think we've announced quite a lot of policy development. We gave the Burnside speech and people stood up and said "hey, there's no policy in here". We've delivered quite a lot against that, our educational standards, trades training, charitable donations, the way we're going to contract with the voluntary sector and the private sector, the way we'll contract with local government. We're setting our own agenda and that's exactly how we intend to carry on doing it.
BE: There's one document out there, the Blue/Green one, which is quite detailed. It's enabled us to engage with a whole range of people - including people who don't support us and probably never will - over what a National Party environmental policy should look like. We'll go through the same process with the law and order and health documents.
Are you exercising financial discipline over all that policy development, even at this stage?
BE: Yes. It has to become a caucus discipline that they don't need to be told "no" - that they figure it out for themselves.
If you are "grinding away" on policy Bill, does that mean we should put more weight on your words than John's in terms of policy direction?
JK: No. John's out there setting the direction every day, and repeating it, and delivering the messages to an incredible range of people. We're running off that direction.
Relationships with other parties
Bill, what do you admire about Michael Cullen as Finance Minister?
BE: I think he's worked very hard to bring some discipline to the Labour Party, when that would have been difficult with big tax revenues coming in. He's easily the best operator and the most competent minister in Labour. He crafted a reputation as being a fiscal conservative - unfortunately over the last couple of years that's gone out the window.
Why does he dislike you so much more than John Key?
BE: I don't think he does. I think he gets frustrated with anyone who criticises him, and that's getting worse as he gets older. I don't think he fundamentally dislikes me or John Key. I think it's theatre.
John, do you think your supporters could tolerate a change to the foreshore and seabed law to get a deal with the Maori Party?
JK: Yeah, it would obviously depend on how that looks. If you look at the Ngati Awa decision and what came out of the Court of Appeal, it's clear if that had gone to a higher body or arbitration then it would affect a very small number of claims. It was a very high watermark test. If you look at the existing legislation, there's quite a lot in that - the ability for compensation and the likes. I think it's an issue which had built up a big head of steam, some of it factually correct, some of it factually incorrect.
John, if you won an outright majority at the next election, would you still enter into co-operation deals with other parties?
JK: We'd have to look at that. My inclination would be to do so. We're trying to build a government. Our focus is on earning the right to be the next government, but in the end any government needs a period of time to roll out a programme. And I think for long term stability we could afford to be generous.
Key the personality
John, did your burglary personally affect you? It highlighted your wealth, is that a political liability?
JK: It was unhelpful that it was in the media because there was an implication I would get thieves looking at my property when others might not. Thousands of New Zealanders get burgled. It didn't affect me personally that much. But my wife is on her own a lot. I care about her when she's on her own, and I don't like the fact she feels a little more vulnerable.
In terms of wealth, I don't think I flaunt my wealth. But I don't think I've tried to hide it. It would be ridiculous to hide it because it's not practical. Secondly, it's the result of some skills I brought to my previous career, and if I can bring the same level of skills to this career then I can make a real contribution.
Are you getting media training?
JK: No. Should I be? I guess there's part of me that says I've got my own natural personality and it's served me well over the last 45 years. I'm not convinced I should try and make myself into something I'm not.
It has been written that you lack gravitas, can you acquire it?
JK: It depends on how you define gravitas. If you are defining it as a kind of slightly more pompous approach, then I don't want to develop that. I think the down-to- earth part of me, the approachable bit of me is what people like. I think gravitas comes with the position. Helen Clark will look like she has more gravitas because she is Prime Minister of New Zealand, and the day she's not, she won't.
BE: It's a ridiculous idea. The public are making their judgment about whether they think John Key is serious enough to be Prime Minister. On their judgement, he is more likely to do that than any Opposition leader for a long, long time.
There's also a question about how much passion you've shown to be Prime Minister.
JK: I've given up a successful career and a successful job to try and have another crack at doing something that I believe passionately about. It's not something that doesn't come without its sacrifices. The fact that I have a reasonably temperate personality is something that's served me extremely well.
Once you start losing that, you can't make important decisions under pressure. You spend your life making the wrong decisions because you can't control your emotions.
What do you want to do as Prime Minister?
JK: Stop the million New Zealanders that are leaving. Extend a country which grossly under-delivers on the natural potential it has. Everyone runs around talking about Australia being the lucky country - what's luckier about Australia than New Zealand? We're extremely minerally rich, we've got the seventh largest waterways in the world. We have the basis of a population which has proven through history that we have ingenuity and a genuine desire to make it in life. And we're 22nd out of 30 in the OECD. We have the worst brain drain in the developed world.
A likely National First-term cabinet
John, why are your spokespeople working on the first 100 days in office ? Isn't that a bit premature?
JK: No. It comes back to "what are the things that matter enough to you to qualify being in the first 100 days"? Every chief executive knows the first 100 days define the leadership of the CEO. I think one of the things that's helped my leadership so far in the National Party was I was decisive in the first 21 days of being leader. That showed that I can be decisive.
Would a National first-term Cabinet look much like the shadow Cabinet does now, in terms of who holds which portfolio?
JK: In terms of the top level personalities, the first dozen or so, I think you've got to say yes. They are strong individuals who have good capability. Whether they're in their exact portfolios is something we would decide further down the track. I think there is a lot of competition. But some stuff is rock solid - Bill's going to be Minister of Finance.
So there could be some surprises?
JK: Yeah. We have a really strong advantage at the moment. We have a nice blend of people who have great experience and they bring different things to the Cabinet table - the Lockwoods (Smith), the Maurices (Williamson) the Bills (English) of the world. We have some people who have been around a long time in Parliamentary experience but they haven't been Cabinet ministers. Simon Power, Gerry Brownlee, Katherine Rich. Then there are the newer ones, and then there are some people that came in in pretty recent times, that I think have a lot of ability. I think if you want to structure a Cabinet that could give you longevity, you need to have that range of experience.
Are any of the older, more experienced faces in National potentially a liability, election wise?
JK: I don't think so. I think in the end the public tend to judge a party from the leadership team. They'll look at me and Bill and take the direction pretty heavily from that.
