KEY POINTS:
Recent polls showing a yawning gap between Labour and National can't be shrugged off as the result of a honeymoon period for the new leader of the opposition, says a Massey University researcher.
The New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll survey put National 17.3 points ahead of Labour. A One News-Colmar Brunton poll had National on 56 per cent and Labour on 31 per cent.
If those numbers weren't bad enough news for Prime Minister Helen Clark, political marketing specialist Claire Robinson says New Zealand research shows people who make up their mind early about whom they will vote for are mostly National voters.
So a big National lead in the polls bodes ill for Labour.
"There is an amazingly close correlation between the line showing time of voting decision and the party vote going to National," Dr Robinson said.
"The earlier out people make that voting decision, the more likelihood there is of that vote going to National. Conversely, the later they make their decision, the more they leave it until the campaign, those votes go to Labour and the minor parties."
Dr Robinson believed voters tended to be pre-disposed to a party of choice, and were looking for a sign that they had made the right choice.
National's last big surge in the polls, under former leader Don Brash, came from just such a moment - his controversial Orewa speech on race relations, she said.
The current boost could be credited to both John Key being recently appointed to his position, and his crucial role in settling the stalemate over Green MP Sue Bradford's child discipline bill.
While "brand consistency" was important in politics - and National go into next year's election with its fourth leader in the last four elections - Mr Key had been dubbed a leader in waiting for some months, and moved into the job with plenty of lead-in time before the election, Dr Robinson said.
Minor parties also tended to pick up support from the around 23 per cent of voters who waited for the election campaign before deciding whom to vote for, Dr Robinson said. Both they and Labour needed to produce fresh ideas now to appeal to voters.
"I think this will be very worrying for them [Labour] and I think that because Mr Key appears so new and so different compared to Helen Clark, then they will know that this is trouble."
