National has taken a 6 point dive in the latest Roy Morgan poll, below the combined support of Labour and the Greens at 45.5 per cent.
New Zealand First would hold the balance of power and decide the Government, assuming that the Mana, Maori Party, United Future and Act keep at least one electorate.
New Zealand First would also hold the balance of power if the assumptions extend to the Conservatives winning an electorate seat and the proposed alliance between Mana and the Internet Party going ahead.
The next election is on September 20.