National sinks to new low in poll plunge

By JOHN ARMSTRONG political editor

Four days before Bill English launches his party's election campaign, National has recorded its worst rating in the five-year history of Herald-DigiPoll surveys.

Support for the party has slumped to 25.7 per cent - beating its previous worst of 26.2 per cent, registered in March 2000 during Labour's post-election "honeymoon".

Already in the doldrums, National has dropped more than five percentage points since the last Herald-DigiPoll two weeks ago.

In contrast, Labour goes into the four-week election campaign with its support topping 50 per cent - meaning it would be able to run a majority government without having to rely on the Greens or NZ First.

But the Green Party's hardline stance on genetic modification continues to pay off. Its backing is up slightly, to 8.3 per cent.

Support for Winston Peters' NZ First is also slightly up.

The Herald-DigiPoll survey of 654 voters found support for Labour at 52.1 per cent, up from 49.9 per cent in the last poll.

The gap between the two major parties is now 26 points - up from around 18 points in the last poll.

National has had a horror run in recent weeks, marked by bickering over candidate selections and the influence of party president Michelle Boag, and one would-be MP accusing others of being "racist".

But the poll may be further evidence that National-leaning voters are thinking of switching to Labour to shut the Greens out of government.

The Greens were the only minor party to cross the 5 per cent threshold.

Act scored 4.4 per cent, down slightly from the last poll, and NZ First rose 1.3 points to 3.8 per cent.

Jim Anderton's Progressive Coalition registered 1.5 per cent, the Alliance 0.5 per cent, Christian Heritage 1.4 per cent and United Future 0.6 per cent.

Translating the figures into seats in the House shows Labour would have more than enough to govern alone, with 68 of the 120 MPs.

It would also have support from Mr Anderton, who is expected to retain Wigram and who would also gain one list seat on current polling.

National would have 33 seats - six fewer than it has now. The Greens would have 11.

NZ First would take four list MPs into Parliament on Mr Peters' coat-tails, assuming he retains Tauranga.

United Future's Peter Dunne would take the remaining seat if he holds the Ohariu-Belmont electorate.

The figures exclude other parties registering less than 5 per cent.

The survey found support for Helen Clark as preferred PM up slightly, at close to 52 per cent.

Mr English has also put on a couple of points to be at 13.5 per cent. Mr Peters was third on 4.4 per cent.

Mr Anderton and Greens co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons both had 1.5 per cent support. Act leader Richard Prebble had 1.2 per cent.

* The poll has a margin of error of 3.8 per cent.

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