In the final of our series on influential members of the Government, transport reporter Mathew Dearnaley looks at Transport Minister Steven Joyce's performance and explains why he rates him 6 out of 10.
As Steven Joyce was rehearsing for his transport portfolio a year ago, he decided to indulge his curiosity - and catch a bus.
The seasoned National Party campaign chief but newbie list MP catapulted into John Key's Cabinet had watched Auckland's $300 million Northern Busway being built beside him on congested motorway trips to and from his Albany lifestyle block, and was keen to give it a try when he found himself minus a car one day.
Although admitting it was his first time on a bus in a while, the affable and highly intelligent Taranaki grocer's son turned multi-millionaire radio entrepreneur enjoyed his experience on North Shore's version of a rapid transit system.
But that was probably the easiest ride he could expect on Auckland's transport frontline, where he has run into turbulence trying to hose down ambitious and expensive prescriptions of regional politicians to lessen dependence on private cars, as international experts warn of a fuel supply crisis perhaps within 10 years.
Critics doubt his jaunt up the busway was enough to ignite any great passion for mass transit alternatives to private cars, even though the busway has been hailed for reducing harbour bridge congestion.
That is because of the speed by which Mr Joyce re-jigged an inherited Government funding policy to curb public transport spending in favour of an extra $1 billion for state highways over three years, arguing his first duty was to the 84 per cent of New Zealanders travelling to work in private vehicles.
Although he says he wants to maximise the efficiency of all transit corridors for economic development, and points to Government efforts to get KiwiRail operating on "a sustainable basis", critics believe he has scant faith in the ability of public transport to clear enough road space for freight and other priority users.
Mr Joyce, who as Minister of Communications and IT has a steady hand on the Government's $1.5 billion high-speed broadband roll-out, is optimistic technology in the form of electric cars and the like will arrive in time for potentially unaffordable fuel prices not to leave spiralling investments in new roads high and dry.
His Ministry of Transport officials warned him that reliance on fossil fuels left New Zealand exposed to more price rises against growing world demand and "a supply that many forecasters suggest will peak between 2010 and 2020." No less an organisation than the International Energy Agency has since signed up to that assessment.
But Mr Joyce, 46 and a close confidant of Mr Key, believes far too much is invested in roading networks for "governments much larger than ours" to let private mobility be sacrificed by not investing in technological advances to beat any looming fuel squeeze.
It is that no doubt sincerely-held - some might say delusionally naive - belief that allows him to contemplate spending $10.7 billion on state highway construction over 10 years while keeping Auckland commuters dangling as he continues to delay ordering their long-awaited electric trains within a $500 million funding cap.
Much of the highway money will go on seven "roads of national significance" including Auckland's $409 million Victoria Park motorway tunnel, on which he will turn the first sod on Monday after bringing the start date forward, and the western ring route for which $2 billion more is needed.
Mr Joyce has gained strong regional consensus for the tunnel although more mixed reviews for the ring route's $1.15 billion Waterview link, which he chopped back from Labour's plan for a $2 billion-plus fully underground but unfunded road.
National took a walloping in the Mt Albert byelection a month after the Waterview decision, when Mr Joyce staunchly declared it would be "completely irresponsible" to spend an extra $1.5 billion to buy a victory.
Mr Joyce risks another political backlash from frustrated commuters stirred up by Auckland Regional Council chairman Mike Lee's taunt that he plans to squander $2.3 billion on a "holiday highway" though the Rodney electorate he may inherit from Speaker Lockwood Smith.
The usually unflappable minister, who has taken like a duck to water to the rough and tumble of parliamentary debate in which he often leaves interrogators looking flat-footed, was also given a rude awakening last month when he found both right and left-wing Super City mayoral candidates ganging up against him over the central city rail tunnel plan.
Both Auckland City Mayor John Banks and Manukau's Len Brown effectively told him to butt out of the Super City campaign and let voters determine their transport priorities, after Mr Joyce cautioned them against indulging in "a bidding war to see who can wish for these things faster."
Despite vowing to get rail electrification back on track by the end of the year - after interrupting a procurement process in March by abolishing a regional fuel tax - he appears rattled about "unrealistic" expectations for the tunnel and possible airport links.
But the mayoral contenders and Mr Lee are united in agreement that a central city tunnel is fundamental to allowing rail patronage to keep growing by turning the Britomart cul-de-sac into a through station.
Even Mr Banks, a former National minister, sees an inner city rail loop as a necessary complement to the western ring route motorway bypass.
Mr Joyce remains one of National's brightest stars, having carried his impressive organisational skills as its general manager and then campaign chief almost seamlessly into the political realm, where he has made some popular calls such as the cellphone driving ban.
But unless he watches all approaches to a tricky political intersection, he risks driving the Government into a black hole of thwarted Auckland transport hopes.
