KEY POINTS:
National is so far ahead of Labour in the Herald's post-Budget poll that it would win in a landslide if an election were held tomorrow.
The Herald-DigiPoll survey shows 50.9 per cent of decided voters supporting National.
Translated into votes, this would enable National to govern on its
own, with 64 seats out of 122.
Labour is more than 17 points behind National, on 33.6 per cent.
Labour has been trailing National in most major polls, but this poll taken during the week after the Budget widens the gulf between them, putting National up about 7 points and Labour down about 7.
National leader John Key is ahead of Prime Minister Helen Clark as preferred Prime Minister. The poll shows 45.5 per cent support for him (up 9.3 points) and 42.1 per cent for her (down 5.6).
This reverses Helen Clark's lead in the previous Herald poll, in February, and reinforces the trend that emerged two weeks ago when TV3's poll showed her dethroned as preferred PM for the first time in eight years in a major poll.
The Government did not have an easy run into the May 17 Budget. The Australian Budget contained tax cuts for the fifth consecutive year, reigniting the issue in New Zealand.
Labour had hoped the "free money" on offer in the expanded KiwiSaver scheme would reverse its fortunes.
The poll appears to have dashed this hope, but as KiwiSaver does not start until July and some of its benefits will not take effect until next year - election year - it may still produce some electoral advantages for Labour.
Labour has also had to contend with unhappiness over interest rate rises, unhappiness among exporters with the rising dollar and law and order matters, including gangs.
There is also a hint that the anti-smacking bill may still be having an effect - the vocal Destiny Party registered 1.5 per cent support in the poll, more than most of Parliament's minor parties.
But unless a party wins a seat, it has to get more than 5 per cent of the party vote before getting any MPs in Parliament.
New Zealand First leader Winston Peters had 5.4 per cent support as Prime Minister, suggesting he could drag his party over the 5 per cent threshold even if he doesn't stand in an electorate.
The poll shows a gender factor for National - it has 54.4 per cent support from men questioned in the poll. Labour has 29.3 per cent of male support. Among women, the split is more even - 44.5 per cent for National and 40.7 per cent for Labour.
Destiny, too, was largely boosted by male support. Three per cent of men and 1 per cent women supported it.
Mr Key took over the National leadership in late November last year when the two main parties had roughly equal support.
He has basked in almost continuously positive publicity since then and his confidence in taking on Labour has grown.
On Thursday he drew 750 people to a meeting in Tauranga.
A spokesman for Helen Clark said last night that Mr Key had been having a honeymoon period, and Labour was in the middle year of its third term.
The Government had dealt with some tough issues, and was getting on with governing for the medium and long term.
Mr Key said the result reflected the anecdotal evidence he picked up around the country.
"I think there is widespread discontent with the management of the Labour Government, and it is increasingly out of step with the concerns of New Zealanders, particularly those who are struggling under very high interest rates and increasing costs."
Asked if the National Party was in danger of peaking too soon, he said there was a risk "that complacency is built into the party, but that is not a risk we will allow to take place".
He said he visited a worksite in Mangere yesterday and met about 15 Pacific Island employees. About five who had always voted Labour had said they would vote for him.
Helen Clark was in Mangere yesterday stamping Labour's identity back on the electorate with a new refurbished office to match that of former Labour MP Taito Phillip Field.
The poll results are based on the assumption that New Zealand First does not win an electorate seat, that party leaders with seats keep them, and that Mr Field does not retain Mangere.
The poll, of 600 eligible voters, was conducted between May 18 and 24 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 per cent.
The party vote and preferred Prime Minister results are of decided voters.
The results (and movement since February) if the poll were converted to seats:
* National 50.9 per cent ( up 7.8) - 64 seats
* Labour 33.6 per cent(down 7) - 43 seats
* Greens 6.1 per cent (down 1.1) - 8 seats
* Maori Party 1.7 per cent (down 0.9) - 4 seats (two overhang)
* United Future 0.8 per cent (up 0.1) - 1 seat
* Act 0.7 per cent (same) - 1 seat
* Progressive 0.4 per cent (up 0.3) - 1 seat
* NZ First 3.2 per cent (up 0.1) - 0 seats
* Destiny NZ 1.5 per cent (up 1.2) - 0 seats
The results are based on the assumption that New Zealand First does not win an electorate seat, that party leaders with seats keep them, and that Phillip Field does not retain Mangere.
The poll, of 600 eligible voters, was conducted between May 18 and 24 and has a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent.
The party vote and preferred Prime Minister results are of decided voters.
