National is sticking to its plan to abolish parole for most inmates - a move which it estimates will double the already bulging prison population and require even more jails.
The policy was unveiled by National leader Don Brash in mid-2004, when he described parole as a "failed experiment".
Only first-time and non-violent offenders would be eligible for parole under the policy and the party said then it expected it to double the prison population - already the second highest in the Western world as a proportion of population.
There were 6100 inmates when Dr Brash unveiled his plan. Now there are close to 7700, well above forecasts at that time, despite dropping crime rates. At that time, the Ministry of Justice expected the 2010 population to rise to 7400, seriously miscalculating the effect of sentencing, parole and bail law changes introduced by Labour.
The ministry is due to release a revised forecast soon, which will shed further light on how serious the muster "blow-out" is.
Having injected nearly $1 billion into new prisons - one is completed - committed to before the extent of the inmate population surge was evident, the Government is balking at the prospect of having to build even more.
It is talking about reducing the numbers of low-level offenders sentenced to jail and sending signals to judges to avoid "sentencing drift".
It is an apparent u-turn on its previous rhetoric, encapsulated by the title of its election law and order policy "tough on crime and tough on the causes of crime".
Corrections Minister Damien O'Connor led the risky new charge and says the feedback has been "overwhelmingly positive". There appears to have been little negative response to his proposals so far - perhaps because of the sobering imprisonment rates - although there are no concrete plans.
National will be hoping to influence public sentiment and its eager new law and order spokesman Simon Power is pumping out press releases.
But will it really want to commit to spending another $1 billion on more prisons - in 2004 it predicted the policy would require four or five more.
Mr Power says of the parole plan: "Our law and order policy from before the election hasn't changed" followed by "that's the policy at present".
Asked if there is room for change, he says: "All policies before elections are either confirmed or tweaked. I've sensed no appetite from caucus in the two or three brief discussions that we've had to change that policy."
National wants the re-introduction of private prisons, believing they will lower the cost of building new prisons, although Mr Power can't say by how much. He does not believe there is a public appetite for freeing prisoners. But is there one for significantly increased incarceration? "The expectation is that anyone who is incarcerated is going to be punished for a crime they committed, deterred from committing a future crime and hopefully have exposure to courses or programmes that will enable them to rehabilitate and re-enter society in a constructive way. And we've seen in recent weeks that's not the case."
Mr Power, like most political parties' law and order spokespeople, and like Mr O'Connor, wants improved rehabilitation and education programmes, and believes that is the primary issue.
National, like Labour, also wants more work programmes and supports increased "work-to-release" where inmates leave the prison during the day to work - as long as it's properly supervised, Mr Power says.
He is happy to hold talks with other political parties "but we're not going to be party to a suggestion from Damien O'Connor that 30 per cent of the prison population be released in order to alleviate his department's cost blow-outs. I don't believe the public have an appetite for this 'it's all too hard' approach and that's a fundamental difference."
Should New Zealand be proud of its high imprisonment rate? "Look, I don't think anybody would say it's ideal, but nor would they say it is ideal that we have a crime rate that is still, particularly at the violent end, completely unacceptable."
Imprisonment rate (number jailed for every 100,000 of population)
* Maori 596
* Non-Maori 113
* All NZ 185
* England and Wales 146
* Australia 124
* United States 724
Total number in NZ prisons
* Mid 2004: 6100
* Now: 7651
Among the findings of a Herald investigation into New Zealand's prisons:
* Prisoners are locked in their cells with nothing to do for up to 15 hours a day as jails struggle with a 33 per cent rise in inmates in four years.
* About 83 per cent of prisoners have drug or alcohol problems, but only 5 per cent of them will get any treatment this year.
* One of two drug and alcohol units for male prisoners was closed in September. The remaining unit at Waikeria is booked out until 2008.
* Three years ago 43 per cent of inmates worked in jail. Now only 35 per cent do so.
* Prisoners are being shuffled around the country as beds come free. Transfers have doubled since 2000.
* Transfers have disrupted education. Prisons' education budget was underspent by 44 per cent last year.
* Many prisons lack proper libraries and reply on donations from the public.
* A new booking system and frequent transfers have reduced prisoners' links with their families. Visitor numbers have fallen since 2000.
National keeps parole hard line
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