National gains ground on Labour but Brash continues to struggle

Don Brash

National has narrowed the gap with Labour but National Party leader Don Brash continues to struggle with his personal popularity and leadership ratings, a new opinion poll shows.

The TV3/TNS poll released last night put National up two percentage points, on 40 per cent compared to 38 per cent in the last poll by TV3 at the end of January and beginning of February.

Labour was down from 44 per cent to 43 per cent, NZ First up slightly from 3.4 per cent to 4.3 per cent.

Support for the Greens dropped from 7 per cent to 6 per cent.

While there was little change to the ratings of the other minor parties the Maori Party jumped from 1.7 per cent to 3 per cent.

Translated into seats in Parliament, Labour would still be up from its present 50 to 55, National would gain two seats from 48 to 50 and NZ First would not have any seats.

Because Mr Peters lost Tauranga, NZ First does not have an electorate seat and has to be above the 5 per cent threshold to have MPs in Parliament.

The Greens would have eight, two more than they hold, ACT would lose one of their two seats and United Future would lose one of their seats taking them to two.

The poll shows no change to the Maori Party's four seats and the Progressives' one.

The poll --taken after Labour MP David Parker was forced to resign his portfolio's -- shows Prime Minister Helen Clark's personal popularity is down from 39 per cent to 38 per cent in the preferred prime minister stakes, while National leader Don Brash has dropped from 16 per cent to 15 per cent.

Mr Peters is down from 7 per cent to 6 per cent.

An overwhelming majority still believe Miss Clark has performed well, although down slightly from 66 per cent to 61 per cent, compared to those who think she has performed poorly, up slightly from 19 per cent to 23 per cent.

Thirty-four per cent of people thought Dr Brash had performed well, down from 38 per cent, compared to 45 per cent who thought he had performed poorly -- up three per cent.

Amongst National party voters 55 per cent thought Dr Brash had performed well, down one per cent, compared to 22 per cent of National voters who thought he had performed poorly, up two per cent.

Miss Clark continued to outperform Dr Brash in the leadership stakes with 83 per cent agreeing she is a "capable leader", down from 85 per cent compared with Dr Brash on 49 per cent, down one per cent.

While 79 per cent believe Dr Brash "understands the economic problems facing New Zealand", only 43 per cent think he would be "good in a crisis", compared to Miss Clark on 76 per cent.

More people also believe Miss Clark has "sound judgement" with 66 per cent, down three per cent, compared to Dr Brash steady on 53 per cent.

While 56 per cent of New Zealanders continue to believe the economy will deteriorate it is down from 60 per cent and the number of people who believe it will improve has increased from 21 per cent to 24 per cent.

Fewer people think unemployment will increase over the next three months slumping from 61 per cent to 49 per cent, while 27 per cent believe it will decrease, up three per cent.

There was little change in whether people believed New Zealand was becoming a better or worse place to live in, with 40 per cent thinking it was becoming better, down two and those who thought it was worse remaining unchanged on 39.

The poll questioned 1000 voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 per cent.

- NZPA