Sure, Luxon’s busy marking his own exams, ticking off his 100-day plan and the 90-day plan. He’s repealing laws under urgency with no public consultation and setting targets left, right, and centre. But what about the cost of living? You know - that thing Luxon promised to fix while still investing in frontline public services?
After six months, nothing has been done to reduce the cost of living. In fact, this Government has made living less affordable by cutting support for disabled people and carers, cutting the rate of increase for superannuation and benefits, doubling public transport fares for under-25s, making the biggest after-inflation cut to the minimum wage this century, and helping drive unemployment up.
Want to cut your cost of living by getting an EV to replace your gas guzzler? National made that more expensive. Oh, and your rates are going up because the Government scrapped water reform. So’s the rego on your car, and fees are coming back on prescriptions.
Meanwhile, frontline services haven’t been protected, as Luxon promised. School builds and transport projects are frozen, new hospital wards are sitting empty while Health New Zealand Te Whatu Ora has to cut $100 million by reducing doctors’ and nurses’ working hours, adding to surgery delays. Customs officials, biosecurity agents, social workers, anti-child exploitation staff and anti-terrorism officials are all losing their jobs.
The only people who have had a cost-of-living boost from this Government are folks like me, landlords. And, tell you what, a lot of us landlords would rather the money was going on those frontline services.
It’s not just voters who are souring on this Government. Business confidence has dropped 22 per cent since January. Firms all over the country are sitting on their hands because the Government has put infrastructure projects on ice and retailers are feeling the pinch as nervous public sector workers put away their wallets.
Businesses see a government that favours landlords, rather than the productive economy, and is distracted with race-baiting and “anti-woke” nonsense, rather than supporting growth.
This Government is already looking tired. After a flurry of repeals of Labour’s laws, there are basically two things left on the Government’s agenda. Tax cuts - does anyone expect $2 a week for the median taxpayer to make a difference? And the resource consent fast-track, which risks creating local backlashes over fast-tracked projects and carries massive conflict of interest risks.
But here’s where I come to a note of warning for Labour.
It might be tempting to think things are on the right path and, if they keep their heads down, they could find themselves back in government in 2.5 years, or even earlier if this coalition implodes.
It will not be that easy.
After the Budget, with their flagship policy out of the way, National will turn its focus to setting the debate for the next election. The same wily National campaigners who beat Labour down from 50 per cent to 27 per cent between 2021 and 2023 will have two years to put themselves in a position to win again in 2026.
Labour cannot expect to win by default. It has to give the voters something to vote for. The recent Ipsos poll shows two-thirds of Kiwis want a leader who is strong and will take on the elites to give ordinary people a fair go. Labour needs to supply that leadership, which it isn’t doing right now.
The usual logic for a party that’s just been turfed out of government is to lick its wounds and focus on stability, keeping its powder dry, rather than hoping to win again after one term. This time is different.
Labour can win in 2026. The polls already presage that the Luxon Government will be very beatable. But to win, Labour will need to offer the vision and strong leadership that Kiwis want.
