The Hikurangi subduction zone: a credible magnitude 8.9 earthquake and tsunami scenario
The Hikurangi subduction zone: a credible magnitude 8.9 earthquake and tsunami scenario. Video / East Coast LAB
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The Hikurangi subduction zone: a credible magnitude 8.9 earthquake and tsunami scenario. Video / East Coast LAB
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The Hikurangi subduction zone: a credible magnitude 8.9 earthquake and tsunami scenario. Video / East Coast LAB
If (or when) a tsunami approaches the city of Napier, the roads to safety won’t be traffic-free for those trying to find high ground.
Because of that, an evacuation model has been developed - the first time one has covered an entire city in New Zealand.
The computer-based tsunami evacuation model aims to help Napier residents understand the potential congestion points leading up to Bluff Hill from the town centre, and between the Pandora Bridge and Hospital Hill as people seek higher ground.
A video of the model developed by scientists from GNS Science, which was not quite ready for publication on Tuesday, is being revealed to the community at a first-look public presentation tomorrow at 6pm at Napier Boys’ High School Hall.
The model simulates the movement of people evacuating across all of Napier after a long or strong earthquake that could cause a large tsunami.
The presentation will use the updated evacuation maps and highlight the importance of travelling on foot or by bike during a tsunami evacuation and the need for multiple evacuation routes.
The Viewing Platform on Marine Parade beach, Napier, which is the first city in NZ to have a full evacuation model developed. Photo / Getty
This research is part of a three-year project called “Agent models of tsunami evacuation behaviour to improve planning and preparedness”, funded by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) Endeavour Fund.
William Power, a tsunami modeller at GNS Science, said the new models provided valuable insights to support safer evacuations.
“The models show where congestion may occur and how long it could take people to evacuate if they leave immediately following a long or strong earthquake.”
He said the insights could help the Napier residents prepare and develop contingency plans for routes that may become blocked.
Power said that evacuation via road could be made harder by earthquake consequences such as landslides and liquefaction which could lead to impassable roads and gridlock.
“Evacuating on foot or by bike is strongly recommended for those in urban areas to help all people reach safety as quickly as possible.”
The presentation will also include preliminary simulations of evacuations from Westshore and Bayview that include vehicles as well as pedestrians.
The models emphasise the importance of practising multiple evacuation routes.
Shane Briggs, the acting group manager of Hawke’s Bay Civil Defence Emergency Management Group, said knowing alternative routes was critical because some roads may be blocked or unsafe after an earthquake.
The presentation will also show how these models can help Civil Defence Emergency Management, Napier City Council, and the community improve evacuation planning and preparedness.
