Musical chairs at the Cabinet table

By VERNON SMALL, deputy political editor

Tamaki-Makaurau MP John Tamihere, associate minister Ruth Dyson and Labour whip Chris Carter are expected to win promotion to the Cabinet when Labour MPs elect ministers on Monday.

Intense lobbying will continue this weekend, but the three are almost certain to take the jobs left by the departure of Alliance ministers Matt Robson, Sandra Lee and Laila Harre.

Under Labour rules, MPs pick the Cabinet, but Helen Clark will allocate portfolios and appoint ministers and under-secretaries outside Cabinet.

Sources said she had considered moving Housing Minister Mark Gosche, whose wife is in hospital after a brain haemorrhage, to a less-onerous under-secretary's post. But he was now likely to retain his position with a reduced workload, possibly gaining Corrections from Mr Robson but losing Transport.

Among the new ministers, Ms Dyson would be a natural choice to pick up Laila Harre's Women's Affairs and Statistics portfolios.

Mr Carter is likely to take over Conservation from Sandra Lee and could get Local Government as well. He is also favourite for an associate Foreign Affairs role with responsibility for overseas aid.

Mr Tamihere could win an associate Finance or Commerce role, and perhaps Youth Affairs.

Helen Clark may expand the size of her executive team to satisfy ambitious MPs. That could mean a new tier of secretaries, ranked below the present under-secretaries, who would receive no extra pay but would be seen as "trainee ministers".

That could be a way to give New Lynn's David Cunliffe and the chairman of Labour's Maori caucus, Mita Ririnui, greater responsibility.

Those tipped to be ministers outside the Cabinet include senior whip Rick Barker, Tai Tokerau MP Dover Samuels, West Coast MP Damien O'Connor and New Plymouth MP Harry Duynhoven.

Sources said that beyond allocating jobs to new ministers Helen Clark was not planning a major reshuffle. Most senior ministers would retain their main portfolios.

However, a bigger shakeup could come closer to mid-term as she prepares for the departure of Speaker Jonathan Hunt to London as High Commissioner, probably in 2005.

At that point, Annette King might get her wish to switch from the Health portfolio to the Speaker's chair, although Defence Minister Mark Burton is also in line for Parliament's top job.

Helen Clark has not ruled out the chance of a Cabinet seat for United Future's Peter Dunne, and that may happen when Mr Hunt goes.

If Ms King does become Speaker, strong performer Pete Hodgson is tipped to take over Health.

In the present reshuffle, Whanganui MP Jill Pettis was an early nomination for deputy speaker.

But the role is seen as "parliamentary" rather than party political and she would have been opposed by National. The job could go to Northcote MP Ann Hartley, who may be more acceptable to National and is otherwise in line for junior whip.

Wairarapa MP Georgina Beyer is in the running to be one of the two assistant speakers.

Labour's new whips are tipped to be Dunedin MP David Benson-Pope and either Jill Pettis or Ann Hartley.

Meanwhile, one MP may be out of a job completely when the final election results, which include all overseas and defence force special votes, are posted today.

Katherine Rich was the last of National's list MPs to be returned to Parliament.

But if the 161,978 special votes cast are shared between parties in the same proportion as those already counted, she will lose her place.

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