Mountain shuttle operators are crossing their fingers that accessing the ski fields this winter won't be a problem for motel guests.
Ruapehu Scenic Shuttles owner Colin Baker predicts that the combination of bookable car parking over the six busiest ski weekends plus parking for ski season and life pass holderswill mean the carparks at the Whakapapa and Tūroa ski areas will fill quickly on fine weekends.
Once that happens, the roads are shut and even shuttle operators are unable to drop guests off on the mountain.
Colin says if that happens this season it will disadvantage non-skiing visitors, such as motel guests, who typically want to arrive at the snow around mid-morning.
"It will be the same old disaster, just with different players."
This year Ruapehu Alpine Lifts has said season and life pass holders are exempt from the bookable car parking system implemented last year. Everyone else will have to pre-book a car park if they want to drive up the mountain over the six weekends from July 31 to September 5.
Colin has been transporting tourists on Mt Ruapehu since 2007. He says at busy times the Bruce Rd up to Whakapapa is closed when the skifield carparks are full, meaning even a drop-off at the top is not possible.
He expects that this year the road barriers will be closed by mid-morning and shuttle operators won't be able to get through.
The Department of Conservation administers the skifield operating concession held by Ruapehu Alpine Lifts (RAL). In a statement, DoC operations manager Tongariro Connie Norgate said DoC has asked RAL to manage numbers to within their daily limit of 5500 visitors at each ski area.
DoC has explored a number of different public transport options over the years. Ms Norgate says a long-term Ruapehu transport strategy is being developed by DoC, along with iwi, Ruapehu District Council and Waka Kotahi.
The latest idea is a rideshare app being developed by Ruapehu District Council to provide a single contact point for the public wanting to use a shuttle to get up the Bruce Rd or the Ohakune Mountain Rd.
There is parking for 2000 cars at Iwikau Village, Whakapapa, and 200 car parks at National Park. DoC has estimated each car contains 2.8 people. Colin says operators have been told once the National Park carparks are full, it will be assumed Whakapapa has reached its capacity of 5500 people.
"There are 300 extra car parks at National Park for spillover, but DoC has said it doesn't want a repeat of the chaos of the weekend of August 8 and 9, 2020, when 500 carloads of people attempted to use shuttles to get up the mountain."
Backyard Tours owner-operator Gloria Dewes-Ngawati hopes last year was a good learning curve for everyone. The small family business offers shuttles to the snow from Tūrangi and National Park, and transports visitors to and from the Tongariro Crossing in the summer. She hopes that this winter tour operators with motel guests on board won't be turned away at 10am.
"It happened last year. It's not fair for the visitors to be turned away, especially when they have paid so much money to be here."
She says on the plus side, on those bluebird days last year, the road sometimes re-opened at 1pm.
"We were surprised a few times. The road re-opened for those who wanted to just have a look or a touch of snow. "
Gloria and husband Brendan Ngawati are expecting a bumper ski season this year and have bought a brand new 24 seater shuttle to complement their existing 11-seater shuttle.
"We've updated, going forward for when the borders open, we have reset and rejuvenated."
She says visitors to the mountain need to learn to read the road report so they are not surprised if it is closed or chains or 4WD are required. There is limited parking, and Gloria says visitors need to be educated about this and prepared.
"There is a culture of having been privileged for years, driving up the mountain and being able to wing it.
"Local iwi, the operators, we all support less congestion around the mountains."
For this winter, Colin's message to future passengers is to book shuttles in advance from their accommodation.
"We are expecting strong demand for shuttle services now that the bookable car parking system doesn't apply to season or life pass holders."