MPs may hitch up to Peters' poll-ban bandwagon

By AUDREY YOUNG political reporter

MPs will seriously consider banning all political polls before an election in the belief that they unduly influence voters' choices.

A bill banning polls for 28 days before an election has been put to Parliament by NZ First leader Winston Peters, who says polls create "the sort of effect that sees people line up to join the Warriors when they look good and desert the Warriors when they look bad."

Act leader Richard Prebble said people had a right to make an informed choice. "Not only is the bill censorship, it is damaging to our democratic system."

But pollsters believe polling actually helps smaller parties such as Mr Peters' under MMP because people would not want to risk wasting their vote on a party unable to make the 5 per cent threshold.

Without an indication, voters would favour the bigger parties or rely on the opinions of commentators about a party's potential.

However, a large majority of MPs want the bill put before a select committee for closer scrutiny and a look at international evidence.

NZ First says 30 countries have restrictions on polling before an election of between one day and three weeks.

The only parties that want the bill stopped dead in its tracks are Act and the Greens. Labour and National are reserving their positions, although it appears National is more sympathetic than Labour.

National supported a ban on polling a week from an election in its submission to the review on the 1999 election. National MP Tony Ryall said some people called the proposed ban the "Mr Peters' Excuse For Almost Losing Tauranga Bill."



"We are very mindful of the fact that freedom of speech is something that as a party we adhere to strongly," he said.

Mr Peters said some voters affected by opinion polls "unintentionally jump onto a particular movement, creating a ... bandwagon effect."

"In this way, polls can distort the dynamics of popular opinion by actually creating opinion."



Mr Peters' own party polled 30 per cent at its peak, in March 1996, but just 4.2 per cent last election. But his 63-vote win in Tauranga allowed the party back into Parliament.

Labour deputy leader Michael Cullen said he was very sceptical about banning polling.

"It would take an awful lot to convince me it should be done."



Pollsters said the move would be anti-democratic. DigiPoll director Dr Gabriel Dekel said Mr Peters had benefited hugely from polling in 1996 when his star was on the rise.

He said Mr Peters' poll-ban idea was "an emotional reaction" to what had happened last election.

UMR Insight managing director Stephen Mills acknowledged that political polling created "momentum" during a campaign.

"But if you don't have polls published, something else is going to create momentum and that could be a million times more random and manipulable than public opinion polls."