Most doubt Watson guilty of Marlborough killings

By PHIL TAYLOR

A majority of people have doubts about the guilt of Scott Watson, convicted of the 1998 murders of Ben Smart and Olivia Hope in the Marlborough Sounds, according to a survey.

Research by UMR shows a significant shift in attitude between April 2002 and January this year. In the earlier poll, 59 per cent thought Watson was guilty. This had fallen to 44 per cent in January.

In 2002, 39 per cent thought he was not guilty or were unsure compared with 55 per cent when the poll was repeated.

The survey polled 750 adults from throughout the country on their view of the Watson, David Bain and Peter Ellis convictions.

The results show a marked change of opinion about the Watson case but opinion about the other two remains fairly static.

Of the three cases, the highest proportion believe Ellis' conviction on child sex abuse charges in the Christchurch creche case is wrong.

Only 25 per cent of those polled in 2002 thought he was guilty and this figure declined to 23 per cent in January, when 76 per cent thought he was not guilty or were unsure.

Almost two-thirds of those polled thought Bain was not guilty of the murders of his family or said that they were unsure of his guilt.

Waiheke Islanders Mike and Jenny Kalaugher, who have campaigned on the Watson case, said the shift in opinion was gratifying.

The Kalaughers are sailors whose disquiet about the case arose from what they saw as the unlikelihood of Watson being able to kill Smart and Hope aboard his small yacht without leaving physical evidence.

They put the rising public concern about the case down to greater awareness of its detail since a documentary outlining flaws in the prosecution case was screened last year.


She said greatest cause for concern was probably the use of prison witnesses, issues about the type of boat the couple are said to have disappeared aboard, and that witnesses are claiming they were manipulated by police to fit the case against Watson.

The Kalaughers commissioned UMR to do the January 2004 survey on the Watson case. The company had surveyed the three cases in 2002 and decided to follow up the remaining two this year.

Joe Karam, who campaigned for Bain to be freed, said the survey showed the public had not changed its view about the Bain case despite the Court of Appeal turning down an application for a retrial.

Mr Karam was confident Bain would be acquitted if he came before a jury again. He said he was astonished by some aspects of the Watson case, such as that witness Guy Wallace now says it was not Watson in his water taxi with Smart and Hope and that police did not show witnesses up-to-date photographs of Hope.

Author Linley Hood, who wrote a book about the Ellis case, also has doubts about the Watson case.

The survey results suggested people were prepared to keep an open mind, which was encouraging, she said.

A petition was presented to Parliament this week calling for an independent commission of inquiry into the Watson case.

Herald Feature: Sounds murders