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Smoking has become more popular among younger New Zealanders, possibly reversing a 30-year decline in an apparent backlash against a Government drive to stamp out the habit.
A Massey University survey for the Ministry of Health has found the number of people aged 15 to 45 who have smoked at least once in the previous year has increased from 31.1 per cent in 2003 to 35.8 per cent.
"There seem to be social negative connotations with tobacco use and that is contributing to less lifetime use, but there may have been some backlash since 2003," said researcher Chris Wilkins.
"It may be there was a general decline in lifetime use for tobacco, but the groups that were picking up smoking were doing it because it was seen as 'cool' and somehow anti-establishment. That included some young people, particularly young women, who were reacting to the Government regulation and the social intolerance that was developing for smoking."
Hospitality Association chief executive Bruce Robertson said the findings were surprising.
"I think there is a possibility of a sort of backlash against the welter of public health information that New Zealanders as a population are being bombarded with,' he said.
"As a sector we are certainly seeing that amongst our patrons - that they are expressing around the bars a view that they're getting a bit sick of the constant barrage of public health messages, whether it's gaming, alcohol, eating, drinking or smoking."
The Ministry of Health and Dr Wilkins warned that the survey might be a statistical "rogue" result that would need to be confirmed or disproved by future data.
Other sources, including last year's Census and annual surveys by AC Nielsen, continue to show a declining trend in tobacco use since at least 1976.
Censuses show a consistent reduction from 36 per cent of the total adult population in 1976 to 24 per cent in 1996 and 21 per cent last year.
They show a continued fall even in the 20 to 29 age group, where smoking remains most popular, from 32 per cent in 1996 to 30 per cent last year.
The ministry's chief adviser on public health, Dr Ashley Bloomfield, noted that the Massey figure of 35.8 per cent of 15- to 45-year-olds was virtually the same as in Massey's first two surveys in 1998 and 2001, suggesting the low 2003 rate of 31.1 per cent was a statistical quirk in the sample for that year.
"There is still a concern there from a policy perspective that it's not coming down, apparently, but our particular interest is in regular smokers because that's where we get the long-term harm."
Smokefree Coalition director Mark Peck said the survey showed the need to raise taxes on roll-your-owns.
Tax is based on the weight of tobacco. Roll-your-own cigarettes average only half the weight of tobacco in ready-made cigarettes.
Mr Peck said roll-your-owns' share of the tobacco market had risen as a result from 30 per cent to 48-49 per cent, while ready-made cigarettes had dropped to 43-44 per cent, with pipe smoking accounting for the balance.
Associate Health Minister Damien O'Connor acknowledged that there was an "anomaly" in the current tax regime, which makes the effective tax on a ready-made cigarette about twice the tax on a roll-your-own one.
