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More heavy rain is on the way for the Lake Wakatipu head waters before anything starts to improve.
In what must be one of the slowest flood stories on record (how many days have the news stories been running now?!) the lake finally spilt over into the lower part of Queenstown this morning, but it's still business as usual as the lake creeps up at just 1cm an hour.
It doesn't appear to be a repeat of the 1999 floods, when the lake hit a record height, however more rain in the forecast is certainly going to add more pressure.
As I just said, this is a slow flood - it's not like the flood stories most Kiwis are used to hearing about, where rivers burst banks and dirty, angry, floodwaters roar over farms, roads and through homes. In Queenstown it's almost a beautiful flood ... mostly clear lake waters slowly spilling into the streets.
Check out our photos of Queenstown's flood waters here and here.
One of the biggest concerns is the wind. Due to the shape of the lake, a westerly can cause major problems - and if predictions of strong winds today come true the flooded areas may see waves of half a metre creating major problems.
The forecast across the weekend is just for showers about the ranges with sunny weather early on Sunday, but just like the lake is slow to rise, it's also very slow to fall. The next band of heavy rain is on Monday - MetService has already indicated that the lower south west part of the South Island is at a 'moderate risk' of heavy rain according to their Severe Weather Outlook. This means there's a moderate risk of a heavy rain warning being issued.
This additional rain, depending on how much falls and for how long, could see the lake lift again.
There is good news - the days following Monday look a lot drier with a high moving in ... but the autumn onslaught of rain bearing fronts moving in from the west and slow moving highs to the east has only just begun. If rain bands continue at this rate Queenstown's lower CBD could be in for further troubles ahead.
It's basic mathematics - the amount of water coming in to the lake each week can't exceed the amount that drains away. For the next 7 days it appears the lake will receive more than it can remove.
But being a slow flood it means there is little to no safety risk for those still wanting to visit Queenstown. The airport is high and dry as is most of the town. It just means a walk along the water front might mean navigating a few buildings.
