More rain for now, but summer's on the way

More rain is on the way for the North Island today and there's good news for those who desperately need rain - the low in the Tasman looks likely to bring in some good rain falls to eastern areas over the next couple of days, with conditions easing just in time for the weekend, or worst case, during Saturday. The weather pattern is increasingly showing signs of firming up for summer with highs becoming more and more frequent over the northern Tasman Sea. We've seen this pattern developing over the past few weeks and now the next several days seem to confirm it. If it stays this way it will mean a much better chance of a dry and warm Christmas and New Year's Eve for the northern quarter of New Zealand.

As the low moves east of the country, around Friday or Saturday, a strong east to south east flow will spread over the country. This means a chance for western areas to dry out and warm up a bit. There's certainly been some solid rainfalls lately in the west of the North Island. But it's all positive, helping farms, gardens and water tanks.

In Wellington the easterly will mean a dry weekend on the way and a lift in temperatures towards the late teens - an improvement on the cold southerly that has been around this week.

And I'm pleased to announce that the South Island will finally see some summer-like weather. Christchurch, Dunedin and other eastern centres have fallen right back to mid-July temperatures this week - highs barely scraping into double digits and people lighting fires again! Crazy, considering it was over 32 degrees just a week or two ago. Invercargill - great news for you too - those winds are on the way out. Sunny weather, light winds and temperatures in the late teens or early 20s should be more common than cold, windy days over the next couple of weeks.

Overall we're heading into what appears to be a predictable start to December. If we occasionally get the odd sub-tropical low, like this week's one, then it's good news for everyone this summer - a mixture of plenty of sun, the occasional drop of rain for the gardens, farms and water tanks, and hopefully hot weather for our popular holiday spots in the east - after all, the westerly wind, fuelled further by El Nino conditions, usually brings plenty of the hot, dry, stuff to the east.

- Philip Duncan




Photo: Yesterday's downpour may not be the last this December. Photo / Greg Bowker