More police could strain jail system

The Government is concerned plans to bolster police numbers may push the new prison muster forecast higher.

This would create further pressure on an already overburdened Corrections department, pressure already forcing the Government to review its criminal justice legislation in order to lower the number of people sentenced to prison.

Justice Minister Mark Burton released the new prison forecast this week, which contained four potential scenarios for the muster in 2010.

It was this week sitting at 7590, below its peak. The Justice Ministry's "preferred" scenario estimates the population will rise to 8685 within four years, but it says another scenario estimating an increase to 9092 is "possible and plausible".

Mr Burton said the forecast did not take into account the potential changes to sentencing, parole and bail laws and to offender rehabilitation programmes now under consideration by justice sector officials.

"Nor does it explicitly take into account the possible impacts of an increase in police numbers."

Labour committed to the introduction of 1000 police over three years as part of its confidence and supply agreement with New Zealand First.

Police Minister Annette King said: "There will be some impact, we're not sure what it will be. But obviously [with] more activity, more police action, there's going to be more people who are committing crimes caught."

NZ First law and order spokesman Ron Mark said extra police might decrease prison numbers as they would act as a deterrent to criminals.

There are now 7600 beds available, with new prisons set to increase the number to 8970 by next year.