More Kiwis staying home or returning

Migration figures showing more New Zealanders are staying put or returning home should help to revive sagging retail spending and underpin the housing market, economists say.

Net migration has climbed to levels not seen for five years.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, permanent and long-term arrivals exceeded departures by 2160 in April, up from 1730 in March. This could result in inflows of more than 20,000 annually by the end of this year.

Australia is not looking as attractive for New Zealand job seekers, with the net outflow across the Tasman of 1600, down from 3200 a year ago and 2500 in April 2007.

ASB economist Jane Turner said Australia had not been immune to the global economic downturn and had experienced rising unemployment roughly in line with New Zealand.

"With the grass no longer greener across the Tasman, more New Zealanders are opting to stay home."

Ms Turner said the turnaround in migration over the past few months had been swift, and the trend was expected to continue.

"The boost to the population will help provide some timely support for the retail and housing activity, helping to curb the recent fall in demand."

UBS senior economist Robin Clements said migration gains had come more quickly than envisaged.

"This couldn't be more timely, providing additional demand for the struggling housing sector. This should reinforce the already evident turning point for house sales and what ought to be a similar turn in building consents."

Darren Gibbs of Deutsche Bank said that in light of the deep recession and job losses being experienced in most key trading partners, it was expected New Zealand would experience sustained and strong net migrant inflows over the next three years.

In the 12 months to April, net inflows of 8600 came from Britain, 6000 from India, 3500 from the Philippines, 3200 from China, 3100 from Fiji and 2600 from South Africa.

Net permanent long-term outflow to Australia was 32,000 in the same period, above the 30,600 in the April 2008 year, but down from the record of 35,400 in the years to December and January.

SEE ALSOTourism up - The Business, P3