More heavy rain due

More heavy rain looks like it's on the way while residents around Gisborne are still dealing with flood waters today. The low that just brushed past New Zealand brought dramatic thunderstorms to Auckland, damaging gales to Taranaki and flooding rains to Northland, East Cape and Gisborne. It also brought slips and road closures from Central Plateau to Manawatu and has helped feed more cloudy, cold, weather to Canterbury.

But weather forecasters will now be turning their attention to a predicted low in the Tasman Sea this weekend. We're in July now - this is when the wet stuff arrives. Last July, in a winter with similar characteristics to this year, we saw two huge lows that created widespread damage and flooding across both islands. Could this July be the same? This next low is likely to bring more heavy rain to northern and western parts of the country...and again may well stall over northern New Zealand...but it's too early to know if it will meet rain warning criteria.

If it stalls, on top of the recent heavy rain, regions in the north will be at a significantly increased risk of slips and flooding. The computer models still seem a little unsure as to what will exactly happen by Sunday or Monday but the low looks as though it will drift in from the Tasman Sea and into northern New Zealand during the weekend. If you thought your lawn was squishy already just wait until this time next week. At this time of year it's amazing how quickly things can change. I was looking back through the news section at WeatherWatch and it's amazing how fast it went from all stories about frosts to all stories about rain.

Speaking of which, check out our new Weather News page -  it's a good one to add to your Favourites as it also includes the Daily Highs in your town each afternoon between 3:30 and 4 plus all the latest and breaking weather news from across New Zealand.

More cold weather is on the way for the South Island. If you live in Christchurch, or anywhere in Canterbury really, you're most likely well and truly over the gloomy, drizzly, cold weather. This year the South Island's east coast has certainly had a fair amount of southerlies and easterlies. I'd be interested to know if they've had more than usual as it feels like the nor'wester has hardly existed in 2009. The cold south easterly flow is going no where fast I'm afraid and with precipitation on the way, mixed with highs of only 6 or 7 over the next few days, it's going to feel pretty miserable outdoors with snow coming down to lowish levels on the hills and ranges. May even be some overnight sleet in some centres later in the week or weekend. Very wintry.

Now it's early days yet but following behind this next large low is an even larger high. The computer models show the centre of it passing over Melbourne on Monday then possibly New Zealand by this time next week. It might just give us a drying out break in the North Island and a return to frosts - it may well lock in that cold air (and south easterly flow) over the South Island's east coast. As I said, early days yet. This is all very normal winter weather... but somehow lows like this always seems to come out of no where...especially after such a quiet June.

Philip Duncan