More climate havoc ahead

The topsy-turvy weather patterns causing havoc across the country could just be a taste of things to come.

The unseasonal weather patterns this summer have already caused flash floods in Dunedin, soaring temperatures in Auckland and heavy fog in Wellington.

And while forecasting experts say weather patterns will start to settle down with drier, cooler weather than normal after Easter, the mixed bag will continue for a while yet.

MetService weatherman Bob McDavitt said while anticyclones would see dry periods dominating the weather map, warm and humid conditions might bring above-average rainfall in the north and east in the lead-up to Easter and bursts of northwest wind might bring an extremely high fire risk to the northeast of the South Island.

And keep the umbrella handy - with the weather never a completely predictable force, Mr McDavitt said sudden heavy downpours like those seen in the south lately were still on the cards around the country.

Insurance claims soared in Dunedin last week after a flash flood saw 25mm of rain fall in 15 minutes, and Queenstown and Timaru experienced similar drenchings.

At the same time, pea-soup fogs stopped flights to and from the capital city - the result of mixing cold sea temperatures with warm, moist tropical air and a wind blowing towards Wellington airport - and Aucklanders were coping with hotter and muggier weather.

NIWA principal scientist Dr Jim Renwick said while January's temperatures and rainfall were about average, the first weeks of February had been more unusual.

However, phenomenons like mid-summer floods and hail were "more unfortunate than uncommon" and not a patch on the wild conditions seen last year.

"They were out of the ordinary but it's not Day After Tomorrow kind of stuff," said Dr Renwick, referring to last year's popular disaster movie. "2004 was a really extreme year and it has been a particularly variable summer."

Dr Renwick said while the Pacific battened down the hatches in the face of a series of cyclones, New Zealand would soon see drier weather after a "pretty wimpy" El Nino cycle.

Forecaster Ken Ring predicted the year would generally be wet but warm, with Bay of Plenty and lower North Island in for flooding. It will be warmer but not so good for the ski season."

WEATHER WATCH

TOP DAILY TEMPERATURES (average for month to date: usual average)

Auckland: 25C: 24C

Wellington: 23C: 21C

Christchurch: 24C: 22C

Dunedin: 21C: 19.5C

RAINFALL

(actual for month to date: average for month to date)

Auckland: 38.5mm: 39.5mm

Wellington: 33mm: 37.5mm

Christchurch: 21mm: 20.8mm

Dunedin: 73mm: 33mm

- Herald on Sunday