Mood of the nation

Celia Parks and daughter Alex, at Avondale, in Labour's heartland. Picture / Glenn Jeffrey

With the election campaign in full swing, Simon Collins travels the length of the country and gauges how social and economic changes are swaying voters and influencing the future shape of the country 

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The Sunday market at Auckland's Avondale Racecourse is a microcosm of the unique mix of cultures mingling in New Zealand.

Vegetable growers such as Sam Young, 38, who came from China eight years ago, jostle with old-timers such as Ray Mitchell, 60, a recent heart patient who braves the winter cold to sell medicinal noni juice extracted from a fruit in the Cook Islands.

Mary Korboe, a mother of eight from Ghana, steers her teenage daughter past expensive trinkets alongside Celia Parks, a Maori airport security officer holding tightly on to 7-year-old daughter Alex.

This is Labour's heartland. The market is in Prime Minister Helen Clark's Mt Albert electorate, and supporters of Dover Samuels, MP for the Maori seat of Te Tai Tokerau, have set up a caravan blaring out the MP's recorded message urging Maori voters not to desert the fold.

Wen Xing, a 40-year-old factory worker of Mt Roskill, and his wife Kate Lu, a chemistry student at Auckland University, are grateful Labour supporters because the Government opened the door to them a year and a half ago. "For Chinese people, when people do something for you, you do something for them," says Xing.

In a sample of 30 voters at the market, Labour keeps 12 loyalists, dwarfing four for National and three each for New Zealand First and the new Maori Party, with the rest split five ways or undecided.

But here, where bargain-hunters stretch low incomes as far as possible, a mood for change is seeping in. Eight of the 30 people sampled are switching their votes this year: three each to New Zealand First and the Maori Party, two to National. Five of them voted Labour last time.

These people do not pay enough tax to be swayed by National's tax cuts. But party leader Don Brash voiced their thoughts when he spoke out at Orewa last year against a seemingly never-ending stream of "handouts" to Maori, and NZ First's Winston Peters shares their worries about the immigrants surrounding them.

"I've voted for NZ First mostly," says Ray Mitchell. "But after the Orewa speech by Don Brash and some of the other speeches he has come out with, trying to bring New Zealand back to just New Zealanders and not one race and another, I would be tempted to vote for him."

Doug Burt, 54, buying sausages at the next stall, has been Labour "for a very long time" but is voting National.

"It's time we made better friends with the Americans for trade reasons," says Burt, who has become a "house-husband" since a bout with cancer and diabetes. "And I think National will also put a limited time period on the Treaty of Waitangi settlements."

Celia Parks, also a former Labour voter, may vote for Peters "because I like his ideas on immigration".

Rocky and Ron Chand, immigrants from Fiji 10 years ago, are shifting from Labour to NZ First because they feel new immigrants should have to speak English. They are not impressed by the Government spending $1 million on the Ahmed Zaoui case. "Just kick him out," says Rocky, a 26-year-old motor mechanic.

In Avondale, these voices are still a minority. But beyond it, in "mainstream" New Zealand where foreign languages are still a novelty, Brash and Peters are tapping into deeply felt anxieties.

From Kaitaia to Bluff, this survey invited 600 voters to assess "the current state of New Zealand" in the light of the things that matter most to them, and then to talk about why they are voting the way they are.

Kay Ratana, 43, a Kaitaia mother of five interviewed at a waka ama (outrigger canoe) regatta at Bucklands Beach, rates the health system as "good" but social services as "very poor, because too many social issues impact on communities with Maori youth".

Many young people, she says, think "education sucks". "They don't want to go to school, so they are on the streets." The school curriculum is "too fragmented". No one learns "how to care for yourself".

"They [social service workers] think they are giving a lot of help but they are not, because they don't understand their culture or their values," she says. She is voting for the Maori Party in the hope that it will make the system more practical.

At a Te Awamutu cattle sale, veteran stockman G.C. Clarke, 75, rates the state of the country as "poor, because of the way they have run down the medical system and the way they hand out money to different sectional groups instead of all being treated as Kiwis". He's voting for Peters.

At the launch of a youth radio station at Gisborne's Tairawhiti Polytechnic, DJ Jeremy Derbyshire, 28, rates the country as "okay" but is backing Peters, too.

"I'm not happy with how [the Government] are changing so many policies - taking away our rights with the smoking bill and banning the smacking of children," he says.

And on the Mt Olympus skifield on the edge of the Southern Alps, snow patroller Steve Parker, 31, rates the country as "poor, because of foreign investment".

"It's unregulated. Any foreigner can come here and buy bits of land. New Zealanders' wages are not as high as England's or America's so it's hard for us to compete," he says. He's voting Green.

These worries are different from the gloom that engulfs people in recessions. Commodity prices are high, unemployment is the lowest in the world, and people feel slightly better about the country than they did three years ago.

When the same questions were asked in 2002, 49 per cent rated the state of the nation as "good" or better. This time, it's 52 per cent. Most others say "okay", and only 15 per cent say "poor" or worse.

European sentiment is up slightly; Pacific Islanders and Asians are a bit less positive than they were.

The dramatic change is among Maori, where the number rating the state of the country as good or better has leapt from 33 per cent to 57 per cent. A later article in this series will analyse Maoridom's surge of confidence, galvanised by last year's hikoi on the foreshore issue and reflected in the vote for the Maori Party.

All age groups under 50 feel better about the country than they did three years ago. But those over 50 have become gloomier. Vote-switchers and first-time voters backing National, NZ First, United Future, Act, Destiny and Christian Heritage make up 14 per cent of those aged 50 and over in this sample, against 12 per cent of those aged 30 to 49 and 10 per cent of those under 30.

Four big issues are driving these rightwards switchers and first-time voters. They are taxes, Maori "handouts", moral issues and immigration.

When National crept back up above Labour after the May 19 Budget, it seemed a passing whim. Taxes, surely, did not have the pent-up emotional power of the race issue.

But make no mistake: many New Zealanders do feel grossly overtaxed. Sixteen of the 72 rightwards switchers and first-timers in this sample cite taxes and related economic issues as a major factor in their votes.

"We are the most taxed country in the world," says Ohaupo farmer Ken Baker, 71. "The Government has given too much money into unproductive areas such as people getting handouts."

"We are overgoverned," echoes public health worker Kate McBride, 27, from the ski slopes of Mt Olympus. "The primary health services are really stretched, but I have seen that there are a lot more people in management ... a lot more so-called managers. We could have less bureaucrats and more doctors."

Henderson signwriter Tony Jones, 44, worries that New Zealand "has a long way to go to catch up with the rest of the world". He thinks tax cuts would make the country more competitive.

In Hastings, a 34-year-old hotelier says: "I'll definitely be changing to National this year. I'd like to see relaxation in the taxes, which will give us an opportunity to grow our business and employ more staff."

The issue is linked to resentment of welfare. Manukau Telecom executive Nitesh Passi and his wife Ruby, who came from India two years ago, see beneficiaries paying with welfare chits at supermarket checkouts.

"I don't like paying those who are doing nothing," says Nitesh, 32.

Twenty months after Brash's Orewa speech, "handouts" to Maori are also a powerful issue in voters' minds, mentioned by 14 of the 72 right-shifting voters.

"I'm normally Labour, but I feel they are pandering a bit to the Maori population and not really focusing on the main issues at hand, policing and health," says Napier medical secretary Lorraine Cooper, 56.

Ohinewai dairy farmer Bruce Ward, 32, tells of a friend who wanted a track and a house on his farm.

"Under council rules it has to be blessed by the Maori where an elder comes out and charges $250-$300 to have it blessed, even though it has no Maori significance," he says.

Josh Pierce, a seventh-former at Gisborne's Lytton High School who played in a band at the launch of youth radio Alt FM, complains about "a lot of scholarships for Maori".

Invercargill diving instructor Bruce Hyde, 48, welcomes moves to set a cut-off date for treaty claims.

"I'm looking at NZ First because they are looking at abolishing the treaty," he says. "We are too PC."

PC. Politically correct. It's a common epithet for a Labour Government perceived to be "pandering" not just to Maori but to other marginalised groups such as solo mothers, gays and prostitutes. Perhaps surprisingly, another 14 of the 72 right-shifting voters gave "moral issues" as a reason for their votes.

"Morals" reveal a gulf between liberal politicians and voters such as Alexis Huni, 73, a Tongan volunteer warden in Otara who has been a Labour loyalist since he came to New Zealand but told his MP, Mark Gosche, that he would never vote Labour again if it legalised civil unions of same-sex couples.

For Christchurch social worker Marie Kuru, both the Civil Unions Bill and legalised prostitution create "an uphill battle".

"I work with teenagers and it all looks like anything goes," she says. The fourth big issue, immigration, was mentioned by only seven of the 72 right-shifters, and by just 33 of the total sample of 600.

In sleepy Huntly, a pensioner in her late 80s, June White, fears that we are importing terrorists. "You don't know who they are letting into the country," she says.

Rana Kihi, 60, gestures at the largely deserted Huntly shops: "Look at our New Zealand people - where are they? Over in Aussie."

North Shore IT consultant Michael Furlong hopes that NZ First will spark a vigorous debate about immigration in the next coalition.

"We have to ask, do we want to change our population by 10 to 15 per cent Asian? ... I'm entirely undecided. There are pros and cons."

These four issues are not the only story. Leaving the Maori Party aside, the 72 rightwards swingers are partly offset by 32 people switching to, or voting for the first time for, Labour (17), the Greens (13) and Jim Anderton's Progressives (2).

Twelve of the 17 pro-Labour switchers were interviewed after Labour's July 26 announcement that it would scrap interest on student loans for graduates who stay in the country, which came just past this survey's half-way mark. Ten people said they were voting Labour purely because of that.

Fraser Nash, 27, of Christchurch has a $34,000 student loan. "I'm going to vote Labour," he says. "I know it's probably irresponsible but I'm looking out for myself."

Statistically, this election is partly just a reshuffle on the right. Act and United Future each got around 7 per cent at the last election, and their collapse this year could largely account for National's gain of around 11 per cent since 2002 in this sampling.

But this is not the story that people tell you on the streets. Of the 56 rightwards switchers (excluding first-time voters) in this survey, 36 voted Labour last time, compared with 10 who are shuffling between right-wing parties and 10 who had voted variably or did not say.

If people are remembering accurately, Labour appears to be losing middle-aged and older voters, partly replacing them with first-time and other younger voters since July 26.

Overall, the left parties (Labour, Green, Progressive, Alliance) are down 5 per cent from the last election in this sample, while the right parties (National, NZ First, Act, United Future, Destiny, Christian Heritage) are up just 1 per cent. Others (mainly Maori) are up 4 per cent.

A street poll is not accurate enough to tell whether these shifts will be enough to change the Government on September 17.

But the issues driving these movements - tax and welfare, Maori "handouts", moral issues and immigration - reflect economic and social changes that will persist long after this year's election.

Economically, we cannot recover the ground we have lost against Australia's living standards in one electoral term. We are likely to continue to lose native-born Kiwis, and bring in immigrants to replace them, for a long time yet.

Immigrants, and the higher birth rates of Maori and Pacific people, are changing the makeup of our people. Big cities (mainly Auckland) are creating room for minorities to gather together and claim acceptance. It's not surprising that many Pakeha wonder whether their new neighbours share their values.

On top of that, in the past 20 years politicians have opened once-protected industries to competition. Maori were especially hard-hit, losing a quarter of their jobs in the six years from 1986 to 1992 as forestry and manufacturing shrank. A generation of young Maori has grown up on welfare, and at the end of June this year 27 per cent of Maori aged 18 to 64 (but just 9 per cent of non-Maori) were still on income-tested benefits.

Treaty claims have just added to the impression of a dependent people.

But, as this series will show next week, there are also hopeful signs. New Zealand is a small enough place for most people to know friends and relatives who are getting handouts or going to Australia, and they have ideas on what to do about it.

Resurgent Maori Party voters say their party seeks an accommodation that will confirm the rights of everyone to be here. Papatoetoe grandmother Awhina Aramakutu says the party "speaks for our people and everyone as a whole - we are all one".

This election will determine which set of policies New Zealanders want to tackle the country's problems, but government policies cannot do it by themselves. We all have a part to play.

Monday: The economic issue.