Friends of a missing yachtsman believe he fell overboard near Te Kaha at least two weeks ago, and will begin a volunteer-led search today.
The group said information from Paul Janse van Rensburg's navigation log showed that the experienced sailor probably parted with his boat the evening he set sail from Tauranga on March 12.
They have pinpointed an area based on the navigation chart and have advice from "every professional possible", and will focus on islands around the East Cape in the hope he has washed ashore.
The yacht, Tafadzwa, was found by an Air Force Orion on a training flight, 110km west of the Chatham Islands on Sunday. It was steering itself with only the owner's dog, Juanita, on board.
Friend Warwick Gowland said the evidence of Mr Janse van Rensburg falling overboard 18 days ago meant his likelihood of survival was very low.
"But it has given us a defined area to search."
He said they were realistic about the prospect of finding him alive.
"The cold, hard reality is that we are looking for Paul in whatever condition he is in. The chance of him sitting on a rock somewhere is pretty damn slim."
A volunteer party of at least three fishing vessels and two fixed-wing aircraft will set off from Tauranga and other coastal spots to an area directly north of Te Kaha, beyond White Island.
The searchers will then head around the East Cape, covering all islands between Waihau Bay and Tikitiki.
Constable Kane Haerewa of the Chatham Islands police has examined the yacht's global positioning system, which he said could provide crucial information on what happened to Mr Janse van Rensburg.
"That's really the big clue that we're hoping to get some information out of, because really that could tell us when he's possibly gone off course and how long he's been drifting and all that sort of stuff," Mr Haerewa said.
Rescue Co-ordination Centre spokeswoman Sophie Hazelhurst said that even with specific navigation details it would be "very difficult" to find a person in the ocean.
"We would be searching for someone who may have fallen in the water two weeks ago. There is a huge area where he could have drifted."
She said that after looking at the yacht's log, the state of the vessel, the last contact from the sailor and weather patterns, the centre would decide whether to resume the search.
Friends and family remained critical of the official search, which was suspended after covering 380,000sq km over three days.
A post on the "Let's Find Paul" website said that the rescue centre had prematurely "washed their hands of Paul's search".
The waters the volunteer group intends to search are popular fishing areas, and Mr Gowland said professional fish spotters would have flown over the region in the time the Tafadzwa was missing.
"We're quite stunned that these spotters didn't know they should be keeping an eye out for a yacht.
"The search centre has said they broadcast far and wide but these guys didn't have the message."
- additional reporting NZPA
Missing yachtie's friends begin volunteer search
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