Police believe they have come face-to-face with Scott Guy's killer - and they expect to charge that person with murder.
But as day 250 of the investigation passed this week, police still had no clear suspect, no weapon and, most worryingly, no motive.
Guy was shot dead in his Aorangi Rd driveway, near Feilding, in the early hours of July 8 last year while his pregnant wife, Kylee, lay sleeping in the house nearby.
Detective Inspector Sue Schwalger insists she will solve one of the country's biggest "whodunnits" in recent years.
She believes that among the nearly 2000 farmers, informants, past girlfriends, schoolmates, teachers and family spoken to by police there is someone who harbours a murderous secret.
"I think we have probably spoken to the person," she says. "It would be naive of me to think that the first time we speak to someone they are going to tell you the truth."
Scott's father, Bryan, says that over time he has gradually become convinced that Scott knew his killer. "In the back of your mind you think that could easily be the case.
"You start thinking, 'God knows what Scott has ever said to somebody that could make them do that.
"We've tried to think who would be someone likely but we haven't come up with any pearls of wisdom."
The net was cast wide by police and is being hauled ashore gradually, but not without catching a few bottom feeders along the way.
Burglaries have been solved, false statements prosecuted and a deranged letter written to Kylee sucked up vast amounts of police time.
Theories about shotgun-toting puppy thieves have been downplayed, connections to gangs and drugs dismissed.
Schwalger says: "There were some rural myths that were prominent - we have found nothing to substantiate any of those."
Police are convinced that Scott was exactly the man he appeared to be - the loveable larrikin who enjoyed a bottle of Tui while telling stories at the party; the charmer who met his match in Kylee and became a devoted husband and father.
The Guy family initially avoided trying to think too hard about who the killer might be. But in an information vacuum, it's impossible not to wonder.
As time went by they racked their brains for potential suspects, and eventually tipped police off about three or four possibilities.
"It was more to rule them out than anything, which the police were able to do," says Bryan.
An army of armchair detectives emerge on Trade Me messageboards with every new scrap of information released by the police. Most in the Manawatu believe that if the killer was local, he or she would be in custody by now.
As far as the Guys can tell, the most plausible theory seems to be that Scottie unwittingly upset some already unhinged individual, causing them to plot revenge over several years and ultimately commit murder.
Schwalger seems to agree.
"Over the ages there have been some killings for no reason. I constantly say to the team, 'don't think within the realms of how you normally think because this person doesn't act that way'.
"This is about somebody who has committed murder - we don't know how they think."
The nerve centre of Operation Yellow, the name given to the Guy investigation, is a room on the third floor of Civil Defence House, a lime-green Art Deco building in Palmerston North.
On one wall is a large whiteboard with pictures of Scott, Kylee and their sons - 2-year-old Hunter and Drover, aged 6 months.
On the whiteboard there are photos of the farm, the puppies, addresses and phone numbers.
Next to that is the command chart. Schwalger, the head investigator, has her name at the top, followed by the other cops working the case, the areas they have canvassed and the tasks they have been assigned.
A marker charts the days since Scott's death.
In one corner, data-entry workers type up the handwritten interview notes and file them into computer programs. These map out connections: associates, their occupations, addresses, phone numbers and car details. Schwalger says that within that "spider's web" lies the identity of the killer.
They have pored over Scott's life in minute detail, to the point where Schwalger refers to a missing 10 minutes here and there.
Every girlfriend he has ever had - and there were many - has been checked. Every corner of the Guy family farm accounts has been turned over.
Senior detectives have been brought in to peer review the investigation strategies.
The team has been clipped from more than 40 members in July to 14 since Christmas. Officers admit its numbers are constantly being reviewed as it has placed a massive strain on policing resources in the area. And it is unclear how long the huge amounts of manpower will be needed.
All the while, anxiety remains that the case may never be solved.
Kylee, who left the area immediately after the killing to stay with family in the Hawke's Bay, returned recently for the first time to visit Scott's grave on his birthday.
"I want this nightmare to be over," she says. "We are all holding on to hope that the person responsible will be caught."
Manawatu Mayor Ian McKelvie, a close friend of Scott's parents, echoes that feeling of unease. "It is a little bit intimidating that this person is still out there," he says.
One senior gang figure in Palmerston North says he is astonished that none of his associates have been interviewed by police. "I know some bad shitheads, believe me, and they haven't been interviewed," he says.
"That's who I would be starting with. Normally people get pissed and shoot their mouths off about things but people aren't talking about it. Maybe it's not a local person."
But one positive effect of all the police heat has been a massive drop in crime in the area. Neighbourhood Support co-ordinator Allan Muntz says burglaries are down significantly, as the criminal fraternity lies low.
Events last year inflicted deep wounds on this proud town of about 28,000 people. A helicopter crash last Anzac Day killed three local airmen. Just a few weeks after Scott's murder, flight instructor Jess Neeson and her student, Patricia Smallman, were killed after their plane was involved in a mid-air collision. The stricken plane crashed on to the Guys' property.
A month later, Feilding soldier Lieutenant Tim O'Donnell was killed while on patrol in Afghanistan. A few weeks after that local man Desmond Winnie murdered his wife, Deborah Honeyfield, and her father, Ian.
But this week the town has something to smile about. The three-day agricultural show, Field Days at Manfeild Park, is the biggest event on Feilding's calender, with a crowd of 35,000 people.
Bryan remembers taking Scott to Field Days as a boy - just as Scott took Hunter last year. After all, farming is in the Guy family blood.
Bryan recalls how he came across his father, Grahame, a former New Zealand Dairy Board member, pinned underneath a massive log after a bulldozer accident.
He used a front-end loader to push the log off him.
"When I look back now I think, crumbs, he was cold and blue when I got to him and it was a wonder he survived.
"You learn, don't panic. You know things are going to go wrong but it's how you react to it that makes the character of a person."
He said those were the values he tried to pass on to Scott.
Scott's mum, Jo, says it seems as if every New Zealander has felt connected to what happened to her son.
"I think it's because it could be anyone's brother or son. I just want to know why. Those boys [Hunter and Drover] will need to know."
Police and the family believe the key to solving the case is in some seemingly insignificant piece of information.
"There is still a little piece of the jigsaw puzzle that we are looking for," says Schwalger. "One of the connector bits. We have a huge amount of information. It's just the linking of that information, the conduit.
"That's a piece of information that maybe the community hold, that they probably don't realise. We are not looking for a big thing, we are thinking about something very small.
"Even if it's trivial, tell us, because we are the ones that will connect the dots."
Missing piece of a murderous puzzle
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