The last anyone heard from Andrew David Lorimer was a troubling call from his cellphone.
His girlfriend answered the call in the early hours of September 20, and it contained about four minutes of "disjointed" speech from Mr Lorimer.
"The words allegedly used were that he was intoxicated, had crashed his car and was in a river, and wasn't feeling too well," said Acting Senior Sergeant Dave Cross.
Mr Lorimer, 21, has not been seen since and it is feared that he drowned in the Grey River, on the South Island's West Coast.
Police cannot rule out the possibility that he has gone into hiding to avoid responsibility for the crash and a potential drink-driving charge.
He and another man were in the car when it crashed into a garage near a tavern in Taylorville, near Greymouth.
The car ended up upside down and burst into flames.
Footprints show Mr Lorimer jumped a fence, and ran through bush towards the river.
Mr Cross said a fire siren was set off after the crash, and this could have prompted Mr Lorimer to flee because of the prospect of police arriving.
The passenger in the car was later found at a house nearby with only minor injuries.
A thorough search of the river and its banks by police officers including the national dive squad has failed to find any sign of Mr Lorimer, other than his shoes.
While police could not rule out that Mr Lorimer is still alive, Mr Cross said that theory of him hiding out seemed to be "taking it too far".
"The assumption is that he has run off to avoid detection and gone into the water in an effort to escape long before police got there, and has come to grief," he said.
"One of the things to consider is that in an accident, there is a huge amount of adrenaline pumping through the body."
Mr Lorimer might have thought he could get across the river, but halfway across the adrenaline had worn off, Mr Cross said.
"The chances of him turning up are greatly diminished over time."
Mr Lorimer's family could not be reached for comment, but soon after the crash, his father told the Press of Christchurch: "Like anybody would be, we are in limbo at this stage and it's hard for us to sleep.
"We are just sitting with our fingers crossed and waiting. All we want is a result, one way or the other."
Mr Cross said Mr Lorimer's body could have gone out to sea or be trapped somewhere in the river.
"Even if you're to find out that your son had been playing make-believe and trying to avoid any responsibility for his actions," he said, "you would still want to know whether he is alive or not."
Missing man's disturbing last words
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