OPINION:
Some numbers that will ultimately be the undoing of the Government this October.
Firstly crime.
There were an average of 292 retail crimes reported per day, every day last year.
That is up from 140 in 2018.
Mike Hosking: Crime, economy and health stats against the Govt
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Crime undoes governments and this government has been, and is, soft on crime.
They claim they have put more police on the beat but the trouble with that is, it hasn’t solved the problem and 292 retail crimes a day proves it.
Once voters see crime, or are victims of crime, or feel fear in their neighbourhoods, you have lost the argument.
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There is a sense of lawlessness in this country, there is a sense that even when rounded up, you are then let down by a justice system that doesn’t lock them up, and so with a growing sense of impunity they strike again.
Other numbers that will ultimately undo the Government this October are in the health sector.
The 67,000 waiting longer than the four months the Government said it was acceptable to wait for an operation. They set a target, then don’t meet it.
Health, like crime, is real in peoples lives.
Once a voter has personal experience or the experience of a family member not getting the treatment they were promised or think is acceptable, the Government loses the argument.
The Government’s argument around health is that in centralising everything, changing the letterhead and introducing some co governance, we will all be better off.
Sixty-seven thousand waiting more than four months proves we are not.
More numbers ... the 71 per cent of patients in the emergency department being seen within the six hours the Government set as an acceptable measure doesn’t help either.
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It was 76 per cent but, like most other health measures, has gone backwards.
Most of us in some shape or form have experienced ED these past few years and what a war zone it looks like.
That’s even if you accepted the six-hour wait as being normal in the first place.
Six hours is an absurdity, no one waits for six hours to do anything.
Next, there’s the economy.
Negative 0.3 per cent. That’s the figure from the banks for the stat due out today on the economy.
The negative 0.3 per cent is the GDP figure for the last quarter of last year, in other words October, November and December.
We are in a cost of living crisis, the jobs are starting to be shed and, if the forecast for today is accurate, we are in phase one of a recession.
If the first quarter of this year, i.e. January, February and March, are negative as well, that is officially a recession.
The economy, like health and crime, is very real for voters. Often history shows the economy alone can undo a government.
The voter seeks an economy that allows them to work to pay the bills, to have their kids at a decent school, to plan a holiday and generally feel financial content if not comfortable.
A recession undoes all that.
Further, if we are already in recession, that in all likelihood indicates an entire year of negative growth, given inflation is clearly stuck, therefore interest rates will remain elevated, therefore the engineered recession the Reserve Bank wanted will be real and extended. In other words, just what is it that unfolds this year, that suddenly sees the economy pick up?
The Government will blame the weather and the war.
The weather is partially real, the war is not.
A growing amount of our inflation is locally produced, not imported.
So how does the Government defend all of this?
They can’t and that’s why they are done for.
You can argue for more police, but crime stats counter it.
They openly admit health is not where it should be, they’ve sacked the minister, and all they can offer is the theory that time will fix it. Will voters swallow that after six years?
And you can argue, as Finance Minister Grant Robertson does, that the books are in good shape to deal with a downturn. Voters know what shape their books are in and what price a tomato is.
They can try, and they will, to tell you the alternative, as in National, is dangerous or incompetent, and indeed National, if they don’t perform well, might end up helping them in that cause.
But cumulatively these three issues alone will sink the Government. They would sink, in their current state, any government.
They need a miracle, or to be exceptional … case closed.
