Mayoral race tipped as all over bar the shouting

Hamilton's biggest challenge is coping with the growth in its population, according to sitting mayor Bob Simcock. Photo / Supplied

If a website where people can buy and sell stocks in future political and economic events is right, Hamilton mayoral incumbent Bob Simcock is an almost sure thing to be re-elected.

iPredict, a website owned by Victoria University and the Institute for the Study of Competition, said yesterday that Mr Simcock had a 95 per cent chance of returning to office - among the best odds for any local body candidate in the country.

But the former National Party MP isn't having any of it.

"I don't think 95 per cent is a fair reflection but as I move around the city I have found that there is still strong support for the current council," he said.

Six candidates stand in his way but the only credible threats come from political newcomer lawyer Julie Hardaker and councillor Roger Hennebry, in his second tilt at office.

Making up the numbers are adult entertainer and former Waikato Times columnist Lisa Lewis, activist Jack Gielen and community radio DJ Andrew Johnstone.

Both Mrs Hardaker and Mr Hennebry have gone on the attack about the cost of the Hamilton 400 V8 series, the city's spiralling debt levels and its languishing CBD.

But Mr Simcock sees the growth in the city's population - tipped to rise 25 per cent by 2021 - as Hamilton's biggest challenge.

"All people and the media have wanted to talk about are the CBD and the city's supposed debt which ... is a nonsense.

"The retail sector is undergoing recessionary times the world over, not just in Hamilton. People should be asking about the rapid growth in our city and how we are going to absorb this growth and enhance the quality of life for citizens."

Contrary to Mr Simcock, Mrs Hardaker fears for the "dying CBD" which, despite a multimillion-dollar facelift to Garden Place, has noticeable chunks of empty retail and office space.

Her concerns are valid, says Jess Bettridge, a sales associate at Overland Shoes in Hamilton's Centre Place Mall.

Miss Bettridge said the rise of Tainui's The Base shopping centre in Te Rapa had dealt to businesses in town, where foot traffic and sales were down "heaps".

She said many shops, like her own, were considering moving out to The Base.

"It's just dead. This is as busy as it gets ... There's barely anyone who comes into the mall any more," she said.

Another business owner, who asked not to be named, was angry at the council for selling a carparking building in the city centre a few years ago, only to buy it back again at a much higher cost.

"You wouldn't think a thing like parking would be an election issue but for a lot of people it has become one - especially when people stop coming to shop in town," he said.

Mrs Hardaker, a partner in Hamilton law firm McCaw Lewis Chapman, said the district plan needed "urgent attention" as businesses in the city paid four times as much in rates as those in Te Rapa.

"We are now at a stage where we urgently have to do something," she said.

"By getting the employers back in, that creates more people, more activity and the shops wouldn't be suffering the way they are."

Mr Hennebry is pledging to keep rates down and bring transparency to decision-making at the council. He has also promised the city's water infrastructure will not be privatised if he is elected.

He said the council had gone beyond core business by investing in the V8 series and the city's debt levels were soaring.

Mr Hennebry said that by June next year the council would be in the red to the tune of $408 million. In seven years this figure would be $698 million.

In response, Mr Simcock said developers' debts were being bundled together with ratepayer debt, confusing the issue. He said per capita ratepayer debt would reduce 2 per cent over the next decade but the only way to stop debt would be to stop the city growing.

Rugby streaker cum adult film star Lisa Lewis is also running for the top office but did not endear herself at a recent mayoral forum when she passed on a question about the Waikato River Treaty settlement and used her two-minute opening address to break the ice and open a bottle of tequila.