May leaves a warm glow... but then it's winter

Lee Parore basks in the autumn sun. Photo / Natalie Slade

The near-record warmth in May is finally making its way into winter - but it's not going to be so bad.

The settled conditions of the weekend, with the occasional showers in the upper North Island, look set to continue for the next few days, although some wetter weather may descend from the north in time for Queen's Birthday weekend.

May has been tracking towards beating the warmest May on record, which was in 2007, but it may be a close call with today and tomorrow still to go.

In May 2007 the average of the daytime highs and nighttime lows was 12.4C, which was 1.7C above the long-term average.

James Renwick, principal climate scientist at the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, said last night: "Unless we get very cold conditions over the next couple of days, this May is likely to come in either the warmest or second-warmest."

He is preparing Niwa's winter climate outlook for June to August, to be issued on Wednesday, which some people consider the first day of winter, although others say the cold season starts at the winter solstice, on June 21.

"We're unlikely to come out with a forecast of a cold winter. Whether we say near normal or a bit above normal [temperatures] remains to be seen."

Looking at this week, forecasters say the weather will be dominated by a high pressure system slowly crossing the country from west to east.

The MetService predicts long fine spells and isolated light showers for much of the western North Island today. Most other places are forecast to have fine weather and frosts inland.

MetService weather ambassador Bob McDavitt said it was still early to be forecasting the weather for the long weekend.