"I think people recognise that, and if you think about say the silver fern, which was based on the ponga leaf, I imagine people who submit designs and ideas like the koru (fern frond spiral) would have to be in there and deeply involved with the whole process," he said. Thomas Rangiwahia Ellison, Ngai Tahu and Kati Mamoe, was a New Zealand rugby union player and lawyer who led the first NZRFU representative rugby team on their 1893 tour of Australia, had also that year proposed the New Zealand team wear predominantly black with a silver fern - a playing strip believed to have generated the term All Blacks. Mr Mulholland said Ellison first suggested "embroidering the silver fern on all their jerseys" but the icon had been since adopted far more widely and commercially, with some Kiwi businesses "taking it on to increase their profits, but only because they know it pulls on the heart-strings, which is ultimately about patriotism".
"I think probably the silver fern stands the greatest chance at this stage of being the winning alternative, because it's ingrained in our social consciousness.
"It's been a part of our society, if you like, for over 100 years. When you look at the idea of a flag and what a flag's about, it's there to invoke patriotism, that's why I think leading into this debate, the silver fern will be the most popular alternative. "Another thing about the silver fern, which I believe is our de facto flag today, is that it comes with a lovely whakatauki (proverb) that when translated says 'as one frond withers and dies, another unfurls to take its place'. That's about regeneration and the passing of one generation to another, which seems very appropriate."
Prime Minister John Key last month announced the selection of a group of "respected New Zealanders", who will sit on a Flag Consideration Panel and seek public submissions on alternate flag designs in a wider process that would cost $25.7m. The leading suggestions would be put to a referendum late next year, while a second referendum in 2016 would put to the public vote a preferred alternate design and the existing flag.
Mr Mulholland said "talk of a new flag" was hardly new and had been raised in the early 1970s during a "public debate and uproar" after Britain abandoned New Zealand as a major trading partner and joined the European Economic Community.
"Change was almost forced upon us as well, when we had the Scottish referendum this year. If that had gone through, then we probably would have had to change the Union Jack, because it incorporates the Scottish flag, and we would have had something totally different anyhow."
Calls to redesign the flag and ongoing debate over the national anthem and the very name of the nation would likely include "a significant Maori voice", he said, and may presage the establishment of a republic.
"I think those changes must come and to some extent, it is just a natural part of our evolution. We probably will see our ties dissolve with mother Britain, and while it may not happen the day after we have a new flag, I think eventually it will happen."