11.45am
The future of Tainui MP Nanaia Mahuta may become clearer tonight after the hikoi against the foreshore and seabed legislation arrives in Parliament.
More than 200 members of the Tainui iwi, including a number of senior elders, are expected to join the march on Parliament today including a number of senior elders.
Ms Mahuta is expected to meet with them for further discussions on whether she should stay with Labour or quit.
Ms Mahuta will vote against the Foreshore and Seabed Bill tomorrow.
She is also refusing to pledge her future loyalty to Labour raising the prospect of Prime Minister Helen Clark having to negotiate new deals in Parliament to maintain her majority in the House.
Ms Mahuta is refusing to publicly comment and there is speculation that she is preparing to follow in the footsteps of former Labour minister Tariana Turia and force a by-election in order to join a new Maori party being formed around Mrs Turia.
Tainui tribal authority chief executive Hemi Rau said his organisation was not telling the MP what to do but would back her what ever she chose to do.
"We are in the same position as everyone else. When Nanaia makes her decision we will all know at the same time," Mr Rau told National Radio.
Ms Mahuta had briefed the board and consulted widely about her position opposing the bill.
Mr Rau said Ms Mahuta's constituents were opposed to the Government's position on the foreshore but they were not united on whether she should stay in Labour or not.
Another option for Ms Mahuta was to stay with her party and try to get changes to the bill while helping to make progress on the tribe's outstanding claims.
Tainui have not yet settled a claim covering coastal and riverbed areas in the Waikato.
Ms Mahuta's father, the late Sir Robert, completed the negotiations for an earlier claim and some Tainui wanted her to complete his legacy, Mr Rau said.
Sir Robert was a Labour supporter and helped guide Ms Mahuta into Parliament as 26-year-old list MP in 1996.
Ms Mahuta is also the niece of Dame Te Atairangikaahu, the head of the influential Kingitanga movement.
The Herald today quoted a senior Tainui kaumatua as saying that Dame Te Ata wanted Ms Mahuta to work within the Government.
A group of senior ministers visited senior Tainui figures recently but were unable to sway their opposition to the foreshore policy.
Maori Affairs Minister Parekura Horomia and other Maori MPs are trying to persuade Ms Mahuta to stay in the fold.
Ms Mahuta yesterday refused to pledge her support to her colleagues at a tense caucus meeting.
Helen Clark later avoided significant comment aside from saying that she had the numbers in Parliament, which was promptly proven when her Government survived a no-confidence motion with the support of Mrs Turia and Ms Mahuta.
Deputy Prime Minister Michael Cullen said Ms Mahuta was in a difficult position as Tainui people were not united on what future path she should take.
He was certain that Ms Mahuta did not want to bring the Government down even if she did leave Labour.
"Nanaia's in a difficult position. She's got strong feelings from many of her people. She also faces the problem that Tainui is politically divided," Dr Cullen told National Radio.
"She does not want to bring the Government down or place it under threat. We have said she can vote against the bill using our internal procedures and to continue work on the bill through the select committee process to see what changes might be mutually agreeable to a majority of Parliamentarians."
Dr Cullen did not believe Ms Mahuta -- even if she left Labour -- would vote against the Government on crucial supply and confidence votes and heighten the risk of a general election.
National had taken the political initiative off Labour by pitting non-Maori against Maori, Dr Cullen said.
"She (Ms Mahuta) along with the other Maori MPs knows that the best hope for the delivery of jobs, health and education, and recognition of treaty issues and so on to Maori is to have a Labour led government."
- NZPA
Herald Feature: Maori issues
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Mahuta to meet Tainui elders tonight
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