Lows dominate weather in North Island

It feels like it's been building for a long time and finally this week the North Island's weather will be dominated by twin lows from the sub-tropics. At least two lows will affect the north with possibly smaller areas of low pressure helping feed the large system for much of the week. Rain, heavy at times, will likely affect Northland, Auckland, Coromandel, Bay of Plenty and East Cape for the start of the week with another low later in the week perhaps moving down the west coast of the country again starting at Northland. In between there should be sunny and dry spells so you can still shove the kids outdoors and say "go play, Mummy/Daddy needs some 'me' time".

It's a messy and very complicated looking weather map this week. The twin lows are quite remarkable. Like two planets caught in their own gravitational pull both systems are spiralling around each other in a clockwise fashion. The low currently over New Zealand will break free though...like a couple on the dance floor its partner (out in the northern Tasman) will gently hold its hand and gracefully let it exit to the east and out into the Pacific. Then low number two takes over sucking in the rest of the energy. I expect this second low to be more intense. It looks deeper, a little grumpier and a bit more antisocial. I guess it's the male in this relationship. It will spin in the northern Tasman for a couple of days before deciding whether to strike Northland and follow its partner, or if it will instead drop down into the Tasman Sea. The second option would see it bringing rain and strong winds to western parts of the North Island perhaps by the weekend rain for the South Island.

We're frequently updating the paths and regions likely to be affected by these lows here.

The twin lows may have bad timing - but then they didn't really have much room. Easter last week, second half of the school holidays this week, Anzac this weekend. Any week would've been bad timing for some. This rain is definitely welcome though - farms are drying out and the ground cracking. Not just in the rural areas either - gardens are dry and are in need of being watered. And those on rain water tanks will know all to well how weird it is to be so tight with your water usage this late in the year.

I have a funny feeling about winter. It really is very mild at the moment...last night some places in Northland and Auckland were around the 17, 18 and even 19 degree mark. While the sou'easterly that's going to kick into gear on Tuesday may not be so warm it's still a long way off freezing. When I think of Anzac weekend I always think of the cold weather starting...but I don't quite see that happening at this stage. In fact bar a few cold nights in the South Island here and there I think April will remain warm with plenty of northerlies. I'm already seeing signs that next week will see highs ranging from 17 to 22 degrees (same as last week). My annual lighting of my indoor fire, which to me indicates the start of winter in my own mind, still seems a long way off when I consider I wore shorts and a singlet around the house on Saturday and still keep a few windows open well into the evening. I know Auckland's a little warmer than other centres but it's not the sub-tropics no matter how much some like to think it is.

So why do I have a funny feeling about winter? Well, while we're enjoying this warm weather the air around Antarctica is getting colder and bigger...it's just a matter of time before it blasts up our way. Winter will most likely just "switch on" one stormy day over the next 4 to 8 weeks.

Philip Duncan

 Photo / Richard Robinson