MetService National Weather: October 20th - 23rd.
Video / Metservice
A long weekend lolly scramble of weather is underway across the country, starting with rain and showers affecting parts of the top of the country today and moving east overnight to inflict a damp - and chilly - Sunday on eastern parts of both islands.
Meanwhile, Labour Day should be settled for most, especially in the lower half of the North Island and across the South Island.
“The main thing influencing our weather is a low-pressure system to the north of Bay of Plenty and all the way up to Northland”, MetService meteorologist Clare O’Connor said.
“That’s why we’re getting rain over the top of the country today.”
Most of the southwestern North Island and the whole South Island are enjoying fine weather today, although isolated showers are expected to become more widespread in Marlborough and Canterbury tonight.
As the low-pressure system moved eastwards overnight the rain would clear over Northland, Auckland and Coromandel and instead affect the east coasts of much of both islands, where it would also be quite nippy.
Napier, which reached the mid-20s only yesterday, will drop almost 10C to a high of 16C while Masterton can only expect a brisk 13C - down from 25C on Thursday and giving Wairarapa residents the same Sunday high as Dunedin, more than 800 kilometres to the south.
Christchurch will be even chillier, with a high of 12C, although showers will clear in the afternoon for the Garden City.
Wellington and Kapiti Coast can expect a mostly cloudy and cool day, with the capital forecast to reach 13C tomorrow.
Meanwhile, there’s a moderate risk of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon for eastern Waikato and the far west of Bay of Plenty, including the Kaimai Range.
Afternoon and evening showers are forecast for Hamilton, and some may be heavy, but it will be warm - 22C is expected tomorrow.
Highs of 22C and 23C are also forecast in Thames and Te Kuiti respectively while New Plymouth can expect sunshine and a high of 20C.
Western parts of the country will be the most settled tomorrow, O’Connor said.
“West of the Southern Alps in the South Island and the ranges of the North Island, [places] like Bay of Plenty, Taranaki - tomorrow looks good.”
Monday should be mostly fine in the City of Sails, albeit with a few isolated showers clearing in the evening. File photo / Alex Burton
More of a large high will be over the country by Labour Day, which should mean settled weather for most, O’Connor said.
Areas north of Taihape could expect cloudy periods and isolated showers, but the rest of the North Island will be fine.
In the South Island, it will be mainly fine, with scattered showers in the northeast clearing early.
“There is a bit of a front coming from the west, so Fiordland might see a bit of rain later [in the day] … and there may be some showers in the west, but it’ll be clear in the east.”
Auckland can expect a high of 19C, Hamilton 20C and Tauranga 18C. Wellington and Christchurch will share 16C, with Dunedin a degree lower on 15C.
Meanwhile, people in Vanuatu are being warned a newly-formed tropical low could become a severe tropical cyclone next week.
Tropical low 90P has developed near Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands and while current tracking takes it through northern and central parts of Vanuatu, strength, timing and tracking are still not locked in, according to WeatherWatch.co.nz
“There is still a fair amount of uncertainty about where this tropical low will precisely track and with so many islands it’s too early to say who is most exposed.
“While it’s still only a potential storm, the fact it may develop in the last week of October means it is forming earlier than the official cyclone season starts, which runs from November 1 to March 31.”
“El Nino tends to put more high pressure between NZ and Australia, a bit like an invisible brick wall in the sky to make it harder for tropical cyclones to reach NZ … it’s possible the leftovers of the low may track near northern NZ - but please remember sea temperatures are only just past their coldest at our latitude so we are not expecting a tropical storm coming into NZ.
“It will very likely fall apart.”
Cherie Howie is an Auckland-based reporter who joined the Herald in 2011. She has been a journalist for more than 20 years and specialises in general news and features.
