Would the current support for Christopher Luxon's opposition party be realised in a general election? Photo / Mead Norton, File
Polling margins
There is considerable evidence polls are skewing to the right because older white people are the easiest to reach by pollsters. In the 2020 election, the polls underestimated the Labour vote by over 5 per cent. National’s vote was overestimated by the same. Similar happened in the last Australian general election. A poll is usually a snapshot of about a thousand people. Busier younger voters are harder to reach than older voters so there are doubts these polls are a true sample of who actually votes. Many polls are also commissioned by organisations with political agendas. The margin of error is usually given at 3 per cent, but it could well be higher. Actual election results indicate this. In the US midterm elections, polls predicted a right-wing wave, which were again more than 5 per cent out. The latest polls have Labour level-pegging or nudging ahead of National, the Act vote over 10 per cent but the Green vote down. The reality could be quite different. A slew of polls leaning one way can influence the political narrative. If these polls are too skewed towards an easier-to-reach demographic, they don’t serve democracy well. Perhaps there’s an argument for not having polls, certainly for the last six months of an election campaign.
Jeff Hayward, Auckland Central.
Recipe for disaster
Auckland Council’s Plan Change 78 which enacts the Government housing intensification legislation, must be stopped to prevent more calamitous flooding in Auckland. The plan change will allow more houses on small sites everywhere without resource consent, resulting in more concrete, fewer trees and more chances of flooding. Climate change is upon us and what is needed is better planning, not less. The Auckland mayor and councillors must stand up for Auckland and tell the Government that housing intensification needs to be well-planned and future-proofed. It will be the height of irresponsibility if Government ministers refuse to see the disastrous consequences this unplanned development will have on Auckland. The city deserves to have well-considered and planned development, not another piece of poor Government legislation that is a recipe for more flooded houses.
Margot McRae, Devonport.
Building up
David Seymour (NZ Herald, February 14) rightly says we are building houses in the wrong places but fails to give locations where we should be building. May I suggest the only place that we can build with any degree of confidence for the future is upward? I know this will upset many of the older generation but looking at the geography of Auckland; if we go east or west, we fall in the water; if we continue to expand north and south, we run into transport and associated infrastructure issues. By increasing the allowable height of a new apartment development by 50 per cent, while reducing the coverage of the building site by 25 per cent, we would still have undeveloped areas which could be used in a sensible manner to help reduce surface flooding. One needs only to travel offshore to see where there are many examples of high-rise apartment buildings with associated gardens and recreational features that could be designed to tackle high rainfall. Furthermore, there could be a more focused development of the necessary Infrastructure, such as the Three Waters and public transport.
Dick Ayres, Auckland Central.
Response appreciated
I want to say a huge “thank you” to all those who sacrificed their comfort, and sometimes their safety, to care for us all during the storm. Thank you, road workers, power line repairers, fire and emergency crews, police, and good neighbours, out in the rain and wind and darkness, so that people like me could be safe and dry. Thank you also to those who manned phones during the night, kept communication flowing, and provided direction. We are truly grateful.
David Burt, St Johns.
Rewarding kindness
The morning after the first cyclone, we walked out of a flooded valley just north of Matakana to see how the main road looked. The first car along that road stopped and the lady in it asked if we were okay, even though she had no idea who we were. That willingness to help, to take responsibility for others, is what makes this country great. So, what are the rest of us going to do to help those who are helping, taking responsibility for others, after this second cyclone? Increase profits and share dividends, cut taxes?
Stan Jones, Hamilton.
Fair taxation
The mind truly boggles at the letter from Gary Hollis (NZ Herald, February 14). He obviously is unaware of the taxation legislation implemented over the last 30 years that include extensive reporting of overseas investments so they can be taxed in New Zealand, the Inland Revenue tracking of property sales to ensure those trading in property are taxed, etc, and for those found involved in tax avoidance there are severe penalties. A lot of those that have done well have usually taken commercial risk combined with working extremely hard to achieve where they are at. Five per cent, or is it 10 per cent, of the top taxpayers pay 50 per cent of the income tax collected in New Zealand. For me, any tax cuts Christopher Luxton makes should be at the bottom end (tax bracket adjustments) for all taxpayers. In terms of have-nots, my concern is the growing number of people who feel they are “entitled“ to government handouts without working hard, meaning they don’t contribute any tax to pay for education, healthcare, and infrastructure.
David Henry, Bucklands Beach.
Schooling success
How does Sue Rawson, (NZ Herald, February 10), state that “charter schools and independent schools are two of the most non-equitable ideas ever”? Charter schools, now abolished, were a great success with superior outcomes in catering for students of differing needs, in an environment of less rigid Department of Education guidelines. They were especially appreciated by Māori. Independent schools receive some minor government funding, unaltered in quantum for decades, with this almost entirely returned to the government as GST on school fees. These schools certainly do not depart from the “norms of society” in that the overall discipline, methods of teaching, and education engendered there, are usually of a higher standard than in state schools. We must wonder why so many independent schools have such demand for entry.
Hylton Le Grice, Remuera.
Incurable condition
It beggars belief how some idiots willingly endanger their own lives - and then those of their rescuers - during a weather emergency. On the news a couple of nights ago a reporter near a beach encountered a man in a wetsuit frolicking in the waves as they thundered on to the beach; another man appeared to be sightseeing near a seawall, completely oblivious to the conditions. I have just read a report about an extremely dangerous rescue mission to save an elderly boatie who presumably was also unaware of the risks he put his rescuers to. A phrase that frequently echoes in my mind is “there is no cure for stupidity”.
J Wallis, Blockhouse Bay.
Rerouted funds
The Government has given the “massive” sum of $11.5 million for disaster relief when New Zealand is being literally destroyed by a cyclone. Over $1 billion is being spent on a useless busway in Botany to avoid approx 1km of possible congestion and a few minutes of travel time on what is already the widest roadway in Auckland. Maybe, only maybe, there might be a rethink.
Bob Wichman, Botany.
Power sources
As we see Cyclone Gabrielle isolating coastal cities such as Gisborne and rural towns cutting off mains power, electric vehicles (EVs) can be thought of and better utilised in future as emergency sources of electricity. Most EVs now have 20- to 80-kilowatt batteries and can power refrigerators full of frozen food through a few days’ power cuts and certainly light up houses fitted with LEDs for a very long time. A register of all EVs as potential mobile power units could be a goer for crisis managers to consider?
Rob Buchanan, Kerikeri.
Watch the birdie
The running of the 2023 NZ Golf Open is less than three weeks away. Millbrook - one of the most scenic and immaculately presented golf courses in the world - will host the event from March 2-5. Surrounded by the iconic mountain landscapes of Central Otago, Millbrook and the national title should be the catalyst to inspire the next group of emerging young golf talent in Australasia and Asia. It’s probably a little-known fact that the latest world golfing sensation, Tom (Yoohyung) Kim, now ranked 14 in the world, played in the last Open held in March 2020. The talent, maturity, and potential of this 17-year-old Korean was on full display, finishing fourth in a quality field comprising the likes of Ryan Fox and Lucas Herbert of Australia. Three years on, Tom Kim is now the only player to ever win two PGA tournaments before the age of 21, a feat even Tiger Woods never achieved. Although Fox, Kim and Herbert , due to their world rankings, have now been lured away by big-money tournaments in the USA there will be, without doubt, much young talent on display and ready to take on the likes of Steve Alker and the multiple past winners in the field.
Bruce Eliott, St Heliers.
On kindness
The wonderful community response to cyclones Hale and Gabrielle show us the team of 5 million is alive and well and kindness is cool. Roger Laybourn, Hamilton.
On Prebble
Richard Prebble writes (NZH, Feb. 15): “Apart from the two world wars, no New Zealand government has suspended policies in order to focus on a single issue.” He doesn’t remember the years 1985-1990 when a “Labour” government focused on transferring wealth and power from the workers to the rich? Arch Thomson, Mt Wellington.
On forestry
Video footage of forestry slash destroying a bridge near Dannevirke testifies to local body failures of enforcement and the actions of delinquent and lawless forest industry. Larry Mitchell, Rothesay Bay.
On property
Real estate agent: “What type of property are you looking for?” Buyer: “Oh, something coastal, beach walking distance, even clifftop overlooking the ocean; you know, a hint of the tropics with some breeze…”. Says no one ever these days. Glenn Forsyth, Taupō.
On climate
A better translation of the Climate Change Commission’s slogan “He Waka Eke Noa” might be “We’re all in Noah’s Ark together”. Christopher Simmons, Papatoetoe.
I do wonder what the general public’s reaction will be when farmers next drive their large, powerful tractors with air-conditioned cabs in protest at being asked to be responsible for their greenhouse gas emissions. Chris Goulding, Hamilton.
On delivery
A pleasant surprise to find a (damp) Herald in my letterbox this morning. Congratulations to your delivery people. I will be concentrating on the travel section. John Farquhar, Thames.
Juha Saarinen: We weren’t prepared but we need to be
What we need is an acknowledgment that mitigation attempts are absolutely pointless (cutting 0.17% of global carbon emissions, even when our forests and grass cover that make us a net carbon sink are ignored because of fault accounting), and that all our efforts need to be on mitigation. If we impoverish ourselves by killing our economy to no good, we won’t have money to mitigate. National has no credibility on this issue because they supported the Zero Carbon Act. Jonathan S.
Meanwhile, Australia exports record amounts of coal. Who’s the sucker? Our efforts at zero carbon are pointless. We are just creating the next local environmental disaster in 30 years - monoculture pine tree plantations. Richard A.
I’m a professional in the climate field and I know climate change is happening. The statistical inferences underpinning the shift in climate behaviour is extremely compelling. However, wasting money on cutting our own emissions is a fruitless and critically damaging addiction to virtue signalling. Unless we are producing ideas to save the world, we should be spending our resources saving ourselves. We are doing neither. We should be trying to build up as much climate resilience as possible. Giving more cash to Tesla owners will not make any difference to the number of cyclones New Zealand gets - this is up to the US, China, India, Brazil etc. Not us. Ironically, I bet a Tesla owner in Hawke’s Bay is wishing they didn’t trade in their 4WD ute right now. Archie D.
Archie, how much of climate change is man-made vs just the natural order of things - climate is always changing? (Not implying we do nothing. Of course, we all should take care of the planet). I know politicians don’t let a good crisis go to waste but cyclones happen every year, sadly with this one, we crossed its path. Todd H.
Climate has been changing since the earth was created. It’s good to stop polluting the earth but silly to believe humans can reverse climate change. It’s just an agenda that never brings visible results, but the cost is unaffordable. Patrick H.
The 19-year-old disappeared without her wallet or mobile phone.