Time for a game of spot the median voter. Photo / Ross Setford
Time for a game of spot the median voter. Photo / Ross Setford
Voting patterns
Matthew Hooton (NZ Herald, May 19) continues to promote the influence of the median voter as if they are real. At best it’s an artificial construction for political analysis; at worst it’s a figment of imagination. The so-called median voter is nothing more than an amorphous group imaginedby the intersection of certain socio-economic factors, often income, age and number of children. What about education status, cultural affinity, gender identity, favourite sport, music preferences? Who decides how many factors to include, and then prioritise, to make up this imagined group? The median voter is used, essentially, to find some rational basis behind voters’ decision-making so their voting behaviour can, hopefully, be better predicted. Individuals who make up this so-called median voter group can act very differently depending on how each factor uniquely intersects with their circumstances. The median voter idea, if not a myth, is a good example of the ecological fallacy where “the group” is used to predict the behaviour of “the individual”. The best predictor of elections is not some amorphous median voter but whether swing voters (who actually exist) get bored, or angry, with the current Government. Going by the recent polls, maybe they aren’t - at least, just yet.
M. Boardman, Dunedin.
Mad spiral
From 12.5 per cent to 20 per cent would have been a 60 per cent increase in tax on the poor. No wonder BIll English finally saw the gross unfairness in this blanket GST proposal with the poorest paying GST on everything, unlike the privileged who can claim business or trust expenses; even for the ute to tow the boat. Later, John Key lit the fuse under the rocket that sent the real estate prices into orbit. House prices were pushed ever higher, sometimes by thousands of dollars a week by the piranhas feasting at the auction sales. Many multiple owners didn’t bother to rent because of the then skyrocketing increases. Even with the recent downturn, the majority have still made a fortune while doing nothing constructive for our country. All the while, the first home buyers are stuck with hefty mortgages, set at the peak of this madness. Then came insurance increases, followed by rate increases, as the blue sky disappeared and the thunderclouds advanced. I’m sure most people would be happy to return to the prices and costs before all this greed that has increased the poverty of the majority. This was one of the major causes of the inflation we are cursed with now.
No sane person could argue that pay for both genders (which is quite a flexible designation) doing the same job, shouldn’t be identical, this is of course assuming the competence and ability are equal. The problem arises in trying to create relativity between two or more vocations and relate them to the quantum of remuneration. No one will ever concede their occupation is of lesser value than another group. I have had experience in this dilemma and believe me it is a minefield and no one is ever satisfied. So good luck with this.
Jenny Poskitt’s op-ed (NZ Herald, May 17) was an exercise in disingenuousness and hand-waving. It highlights how broken NCEA and the Ministry of Education are. NCEA has value and portability? A 10 cent coin also has value and portability - but not much value. An egg has value and portability. But like education agendas, an egg can be rotten. Don’t get me wrong, even a rotten egg has value. But it has much more value to those who want to destroy, not those who want to build up. Under NCEA, numeracy skills are devalued and pushed aside as literacy content is pushed into maths courses. The online pre-NCEA numeracy assessment has so many “explain” questions that it is as much a test of typing and literacy as it is of numeracy. Next year, NCEA 1′s literacy-heavy statistics expands to half the maths course. The numeracy of New Zealanders is being systematically destroyed. Poskitt would have us believe this is deliberate; to ”better equip our young people for their future”. It will be a future of ignorance and inability.
Ian Mander, Mt Roskill.
Midday meals
I agree with Professor Swinburn (NZ Herald, May 18) that free healthy lunches should be provided in schools, particularly in the junior years. In the UK, lunches are free for the first two years and thereafter means-tested. The kids have a choice between four basic, healthy meals, such as baked potato with cheesy baked beans or ham sandwiches, followed by fruit. Vegan and gluten- or dairy-free options are available. Choosing your lunch in the morning enhances children’s enthusiasm for school and saves parents’ time and money, as well as employing several part-timers in the lunchroom. Wish we could do the same.
Janet Drake, Remuera.
Lunch hour at Hillstone Primary School, in Birmingham, England, where school meals are free to all younger children and to some of the poorest families. Photo / AP
Auckland seems to have a ready set of “armchair” ecologists and forestry advisors. Messrs Tubb and Jardine (NZ Herald, May 16) seem unaware of the history of land use in Tairāwhiti. Early British colonists cleared the native forests for farming, and plantation forestry was introduced in the 1960s to slow the widespread erosion on those unstable catchments, following the Taylor Report on the region. The problem still is that the volume of water and sediment coming off those farms sweeps through everything, plantations included. The Waiapu River catchment carries 35 million tonnes of sediment each year out to sea, according to Richard Wolfe in his recent book “Footprints on the Land - How Humans Changed New Zealand”. A sobering story. By the way, I’m a retired forester, now farmer, myself.
David Field, Rotorua.
Slipping standards
May I belatedly add my profound, heartfelt support to readers’ comments about Bill Capamagian’s forthright views (NZ Herald, May 16)? I have lived and worked in New Zealand from 1960 until my retirement in 2016. I am now over 80, and I am deeply saddened by our country’s inexorable slide toward becoming a failed state. What a tragic decline. We appear to lack leaders with enough moral courage and strength to stand up to the nonsense advanced by the PC brigade, or by others who simply do not know right from wrong. I fear for my grandchildren and for what they will have to face.
John Hampson, Meadowbank.
Beggaring belief
Bill Capamagian’s article (NZ Herald, May 16) has good points but makes contentious statements. Citizenship or civic training will benefit all. Acting with social responsibility, wherever they end up in life will benefit society. We have become a society where too many think only of themselves. New Zealand has gone downhill over the last 40 years, but because of extreme capitalism. Most social issues escalated with Rogernomics - poverty rates, prison population, gang numbers, and suicides. Welfare benefits are a hand-up, not a handout. It’s just logic that the stronger the hand-up, the better your outcomes, which is why Scandinavian countries fare much better. It’s misleading to say that taxes on smoking had no effect; the anti-smoking campaign is the best example of successful harm reduction. It’s contentious that sensible regulations will not help vulnerable people, that “ratbags” or their kids don’t deserve protection from exploitation. Even the lobby groups haven’t faulted the IRD report on the taxation of the wealthy. New Zealand is perhaps the only developed country where the ordinary mum and dad who work hard for a year to earn $150,000 pays 20 per cent tax while someone who makes millions in capital gains, usually with far less effort, pays a big, fat zero.
Kushlan Sugathapala, Epsom.
Export ourselves
While our Government is in spend mode, I think it would be far superior to step back 70 years when we had the world’s fourth-best economy with a population of less than two million. Surely it would only cost $300 billion to subsidise 2.5 million Kiwis to move to Oz? Real estate would crash 90 per cent, no CGT, which would leave each with a home, plus a holiday pad. Greedy landlords would be gone, so too would traffic, room galore at the hospital, then most would only need to queue for gardening and dressmaking classes, while the kids would each have a busted car in the backyard to take their cellphones. Our shortfall interest would easily be covered by not having to pay half the pollies, with their whacko schemes and superannuation.
Gerry O’Meeghan,Pāpāmoa.
Apples and oranges
It seems that politicians, journos, and letter writers love to compare us to Scandinavian countries. Having visited and worked with a number of companies over a number of years, there is no genuine comparison that can be made. North Sea oil and its profits along with a market of over 450 million people a 24-hour truck drive from their farms, manufacturers and warehouses translate into an economy so different to ours that comparisons with any facet of their way of life are totally redundant.
Andy O’Sullivan, Royal Oak.
Retrench town rock
Interesting to read recently that 400 Auckland Council employees are to lose their jobs. Sad as that is, I recall some years ago that a comparison was made between Brisbane and Auckland - similar populations but Auckland had double the council staff numbers. Finally, Auckland has woken up.
Dennis Ross, Glendowie.
Short & sweet
On tax
Maybe with the IRD sending notice of tax paid, we could make it public knowledge. I’m not worried as it is taken at source and I don’t have multiple trusts, shell companies, and a host of other shady legal loopholes to use. John Davison, Manurewa.
On shelters
Why do we make bus shelters with glass? These are regularly targeted by vandals. I spoke to a contractor, replacing a panel, who said he didn’t mind the damage. Hmm, I wonder why? Nishi Fahmy, Avondale.
On voters
Philip Lenton (NZH, May 18) quotes Winston Churchill questioning the intelligence of the average voters. I prefer Bob Jones’ “never underestimate the common sense of the ordinary voter”. Steve Dransfield, Wellington.
On Trump
Trump must surely be correct when he claims the election was rigged. Joe Biden got 81,284,666 and it is inconceivable Trump got as many as 74,224,319. Rod Lyons, Kumeu.
On prescriptions
Rather than abolishing prescription charges, maybe the $619 million would have been better invested in Pharmac so it could purchase additional essential drugs for the benefit of all Kiwis? Mike Baker, Bethlehem.
On critical
I’m sick of the cliche that someone is “fighting for their life” in hospital. Usually, that person is unconscious and it is the doctors and nurses who are “fighting”. Mikki Buckland, Pāpāmoa Beach.
You say you are not a charity? Well, mate, l’m not a bank. You should have refunded our money from cancelled Covid tickets. Now you want us to spend our credits on hyper-inflated tickets. I’m done with Air New Zealand. Stuart M.
That’s good, your choice, good luck. Ross P.
Not a charity I agree. But the consumer is talking, so I would listen. Please answer your phone. Please remove your nauseating safety video. It’s a gimmick, it’s not a safety video. Your prices are mind-blowingly high. Your service for the higher-end ticket is no different to a cheaper ticket. No point in being in the “club”. Transtasman flight times are a joke. Your lounges are full, loud and no longer have seating. You basically are not keeping up with slick competitors who recognise and value their loyal customers. Good luck, Mr Foran, you will need it. Mark C.
He needs to clean out the personnel in the dept responsible for producing those pre-flight safety videos - - for far too long those vids have sat squarely at the junction where asinine intersects with dreck. Merv L.
People have choices, people. There’s road and rail. And other airlines. Or you could demand the Government subsidises your air travel around New Zealand. You’re paying what the market will bear. The fact that you’re paying is evidence of that. You pay the prices at the fuel pumps, for the milk and bread. There’s no entitlement to be owed to Kiwis by the airline. When the competition comes back on stream, Air NZ will respond. Or you will make your choices. Your loyalties won’t extend to Air NZ then I’m sure. Thomas M.
