KEY POINTS:
An early poll at Tauranga Boys College predicts National will win next year's election, but the students emphasise that their survey sample was small and that party leader John Key still has a lot of work ahead.
The college is renowned for its accurate political predictions, having picked the winner at every election but one since 1975.
Yesterday, students in a university-level philosophy class presented Mr Key and Tauranga MP Bob Clarkson with the results of a special poll conducted for a visit by the politicians to the college.
National was the clear winner in the party vote, prompting an elated Mr Key to say, "My God, I hope you're right".
But prefect Owen Behrens, an aspiring political science student who conducted the poll with deputy head boy Aaron Baggenstos, warned Mr Key and Mr Clarkson to treat the results with caution.
Owen said it had been conducted in a rush and sampled only 80 students, rather than the usual 200 questioned in the college's election-year polls.
The respondents had also been senior business studies students who came from middle- to high-income families and were therefore more likely to be National voters, the 17-year-old said.
The usual polls sampled a more diverse demographic, stretching down to fifth form.
Aaron, also 17, gave a PowerPoint presentation on the history of the polls, conducted by the school's Hillsdene Reflector newspaper.
The polls, carried out twice each election year since 1975, had been wrong only once, in 1999, when "the Reflector" said National would win rather than the Labour/Alliance coalition that succeeded.
Aaron said predictions had become more difficult since the introduction of MMP in 1996, but in 2005, the students had "boldly" predicted that Mr Clarkson would win Tauranga from New Zealand First leader Winston Peters, who had held it for 21 years.
